{"id":205,"date":"2006-12-09T10:26:26","date_gmt":"2006-12-09T15:26:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=205"},"modified":"2007-02-27T22:04:44","modified_gmt":"2007-02-28T03:04:44","slug":"cheneys-shiite-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=205","title":{"rendered":"Cheney’s Shiite Oil Patch"},"content":{"rendered":"
The Washington Post has publishe<\/title>The <em>Washington Post<\/em> has published <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/article\/2006\/12\/08\/AR2006120801823_2.html\"> the latest installment<\/a> of Robin Wright’s reporting on the Bush administration’s Iraq Policy Review and the <em>New York Times<\/em> has a report on the hydrocarbon law negotiations in Iraq.<\/p>\n<p>If Wright has the factional story correct, the White House Iraq Policy Review is looking increasingly like Cheney’s Right Zionist answer to James Baker’s Right Arabist Iraq Study Group Report.<\/p>\n<p>The central “news” of Wright’s article–entitled “<a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/article\/2006\/12\/08\/AR2006120801823.html\">Iraq Strategy Review Focusing On Three Main Options<\/a>“–is that she identifies <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=202\">Cheney as leader of the faction<\/a> supporting the so-called “<a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=183\">Shiite Option<\/a>” or the “<a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=200\">80 Percent Solution<\/a>.”\u00c2\u00a0 Here is Wright:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Vice President Cheney’s office has most vigorously argued for the “80 \tpercent solution,” in terms of both realities on the ground and the history \tof U.S. engagement with the Shiites, sources say. A source familiar with the \tdiscussions said Cheney argued this week that the United States could not \tagain be seen to abandon the Shiites, Iraq’s largest population group, after \tcalling in 1991 for them to rise up against then-President Saddam Hussein \tand then failing to support them when they did. Thousands were killed in a \thuge crackdown.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Let us stipulate that Cheney’s concern for the Shiite is not humanitarian.\u00c2\u00a0 It is “strategic” and represents a return to the Right Zionist “<a href=\"http:\/\/www.zmag.org\/content\/showarticle.cfm?ItemID=10185\">Plan A<\/a>” that dominated the early days of the US invasion of Iraq.\u00c2\u00a0 The heart of that plan has been a shift in the regional balance of power away from Sunni Arab dominance and toward a “reconfigured,” pro-American Shiite Crescent.<\/p>\n<p>At the heart of any Shiite option has always been Grand Ayatollah Sistani and, to a lesser extent, SCIRI leader Abdul Aziz al-Hakim.<\/p>\n<p>Hakim was recently in Washington for meetings with administration officials.\u00c2\u00a0 It would have been interesting to be a fly on the wall for those sessions.\u00c2\u00a0 One topic that surely made the agenda: Hakim’s position on regional autonomy for southern Iraq and the implications of autonomy for the future of oil field development in Iraq.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Hakim and the Hydrocarbons Law<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It may be no coincidence that only days after Hakim’s visit to Washington, Ed Wong reports in the <em>New York Times<\/em> that Iraqis are <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2006\/12\/09\/world\/middleeast\/09oil.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&pagewanted=all\"> “near” a deal<\/a> on the hydrocarbons law.\u00c2\u00a0 Wong writes as if the Kurds have opened a path toward reconciliation:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Iraqi officials are near agreement on a national oil law that would \tgive the central government the power to distribute current and future oil \trevenues to the provinces or regions, based on their population, Iraqi and \tAmerican officials say.<\/p>\n<p>If enacted, the measure, drafted by a committee of politicians and \tministers, could help resolve a highly divisive issue that has consistently \tblocked efforts to reconcile the country\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s feuding ethnic and sectarian \tfactions. Sunni Arabs, who lead the insurgency, have opposed the idea of \tregional autonomy for fear that they would be deprived of a fair share of \tthe country\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s oil wealth, which is concentrated in the Shiite south and \tKurdish north…<\/p>\n<p>At the start of the talks, the Kurds fought to ensure that regional \tgovernments have the power to collect and distribute revenues from future \tfields, Iraqi and American officials said. They also proposed that revenues \tbe shared among the regions based on both population and crimes committed \tagainst the people under Mr. Hussein\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s rule. That would have given the Kurds \tand Shiites a share of the oil wealth larger than the proportions of their \tpopulations.<\/p>\n<p>But the Kurds dropped those demands, said Barham Salih, a deputy prime \tminister who is a Kurd and the chairman of the committee.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The only problem is that the distribution of revenues has not been the key sticking point in recent months.\u00c2\u00a0 The contentious issue is <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=165\">control over new oil field development<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 Have the Kurds backed down on that issue?<\/p>\n<p>No, says Wong in the <em>New York Times<\/em>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The <strong>major remaining stumbling block<\/strong>, officials said, concerns the \tissuing of contracts for developing future oil fields. The Kurds are \tinsisting that the regions reserve final approval over such contracts, \tfearing that if that power were given to a Shiite-dominated central \tgovernment, it could ignore proposed contracts in the Kurdish north while \tpermitting them in the Shiite south, American and Iraqi officials said…<\/p>\n<p>[T]he Kurds are still holding out on the issue of oil contracts, arguing \tthat the Constitution guarantees the regions absolute rights in those \tmatters.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>So what has changed?\u00c2\u00a0 What motivates the Wong report if the Kurds have not removed the major remaining stumbling block?<\/p>\n<p>The Shiites and the Bush administration may be preparing to overrule the Kurds.\u00c2\u00a0 Specifically, SCIRI’s Hakim seems to have abandoned his <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=137\">prior commitments to regional autonomy<\/a>, at least with regard to the crucial issue of control over new oil field development.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>On the drafting committee, <strong>Sunni Arabs have allied with the Shiites \tagainst the Kurds<\/strong>, who have sought to maintain as much regional control \tas possible over the oil industry in their autonomous northern enclave. \tIraqi Kurdistan has enjoyed de facto independence since 1991, when the \tAmerican military established a no-flight zone above the mountainous region \tto prevent raids by Saddam Hussein.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Wong has buried the big news: <em>Shiites<\/em> have allied with Sunni Arabs on the issue of Iraqi national unity (no news that <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=166\">Sunni Arabs oppose the Kurds<\/a> on this issue…).<\/p>\n<p>Combine this with word in the <em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/75d9be86-8621-11db-86d5-0000779e2340.html\"> Financial Times<\/a><\/em> that the oil majors appear to have <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=165\">leveraged a commitment<\/a> to Production Sharing Agreements and you have a new ball game in Iraqi politics.<\/p>\n<p>That helps clear the way for Cheney to embrace a Shiite Option in Iraq.\u00c2\u00a0 Forget James Baker.\u00c2\u00a0 Get ready for <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=146\">a really lame duck<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Washington Post has publisheThe Washington Post has published the latest installment of Robin Wright’s reporting on the Bush administration’s Iraq Policy Review and the New York Times has a report on the hydrocarbon law negotiations in Iraq. If Wright has the factional story correct, the White House Iraq Policy Review is looking increasingly like […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=205"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=205"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=205"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=205"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}