{"id":208,"date":"2006-12-13T09:03:49","date_gmt":"2006-12-13T14:03:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=208"},"modified":"2007-03-23T10:58:33","modified_gmt":"2007-03-23T15:58:33","slug":"cheney-baker-and-the-house-of-saud","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=208","title":{"rendered":"Cheney, Baker, and the House of Saud"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a November 30, 2006 post<\/a>, I suggested the following:<\/p>\n

[T]here are signs of a growing Right Arabist split regarding US policy \ttoward Iran. The factions within such a split are representing by Vice \tPresident Cheney, who is trying to bolster Saudi resolve to resist Iranian \tregional dominance, and James Baker, who is trying to facilitate Saudi \tdetente with the Iranians.<\/p>\n

These signs may also be linked to factional battles within the House of \tSaud although limited transparency make these more difficult to discern on \tthe basis of open source reporting.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Today’s New York Times<\/em> article by Helene Cooper–“Saudis Say They Might Back Sunnis if U.S. Leaves Iraq<\/a>“–seems to suggest that the Saudi split may indeed be part of the story.<\/p>\n

Along the way, Cooper sheds light on a number of significant developments regarding US-Saudi relations.<\/p>\n

Cooper reports:<\/p>\n

The Saudi ambassador to the United States, Prince Turki al-Faisal, who \ttold his staff on Monday that he was resigning his post, recently fired \tNawaf Obaid, a consultant who wrote an opinion piece in The Washington Post \ttwo weeks ago contending that \u00e2\u20ac\u0153one of the first consequences\u00e2\u20ac\u009d of an American \tpullout of Iraq would \u00e2\u20ac\u0153be massive Saudi intervention to stop Iranian-backed \tShiite militias from butchering Iraqi Sunnis.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/p>\n

Mr. Obaid also suggested that Saudi Arabia could cut world oil prices in \thalf by raising its production, a move that he said \u00e2\u20ac\u0153would be devastating to \tIran, which is facing economic difficulties even with today\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s high oil \tprices.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d The Saudi government disavowed Mr. Obaid\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s column, and Prince Turki \tcanceled his contract.<\/p>\n

But Arab diplomats said Tuesday that Mr. Obaid\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s column reflected the \tview of the Saudi government<\/strong>, which has made clear its opposition to an \tAmerican pullout from Iraq.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

And, Cooper also makes news by reporting new details on the substance of Cheney’s meeting with Saudi King Abdullah in late November:<\/p>\n

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia conveyed that message to Vice President \tDick Cheney two weeks ago during Mr. Cheney\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s whirlwind visit to Riyadh, the \tofficials said. During the visit, King Abdullah also expressed strong \topposition to diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran<\/strong>, and \tpushed for Washington to encourage the resumption of peace talks between \tIsrael and the Palestinians, senior Bush administration officials said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Abdullah is opposed to diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran. That idea was floated by James Baker. So what ever happened to James Baker’s famous intimacy with the Saudi Royal family?<\/p>\n

One answer is that a Cheney-Baker split reflects a split in the house of Saud:<\/p>\n

In Riyadh, there was a sense of disarray over Prince Turki\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s resignation \tthat was difficult to hide. A former adviser to the royal family said that \tPrince Turki had submitted his resignation several months ago but that it \twas refused. Rumors had circulated ever since that Prince Turki intended to \tresign, as talk of a possible government shake-up grew.<\/p>\n

Prince Saud al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s foreign minister and Prince Turki\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s \tbrother, has been in poor health for some time. He is described as eager to \tresign, with his wife\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s health failing, too, just as the United States has \tbeen prodding Saudi Arabia to take a more active role in Iraq and with Iran.<\/p>\n

The former adviser said Prince Turki\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s resignation came amid a growing \trivalry between the ambassador and Prince Bandar<\/strong>, who is now Saudi \tArabia\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s national security adviser. Prince Bandar, well known in Washington \tfor his access to the White House, has vied to become the next foreign \tminister.<\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u0153This is a very high-level problem; this is about Turki, the king and \tBandar,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d said the former adviser to the royal family. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Let\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s say the men \tdon\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t have a lot of professional admiration for each other.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Is Bandar Baker’s man (and vice versa)?<\/p>\n

And Cheney? Is he now aligned<\/em> with King Abdullah?<\/p>\n

Or has Cheney decided that the Bandar\/Bush branch of the Saudi Royal family–the Sudairi Seven that let Cheney station 500,000 US troops on Saudi soil in 1990 over the objections of Abdullah–has lost the battle for control of Saudi Arabia<\/a>?<\/font><\/p>\n

Was Cheney’s trip to Riyadh was a farewell visit? Did Cheney tell King Abdullah that he was backing the Shiite Option<\/a> in Iraq?<\/font><\/p>\n

The last time Prince Turki resigned abruptly was on September 4, 2001, exactly one week before the September 11 attacks. Mark your calendars.<\/p>\n

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In a November 30, 2006 post, I suggested the following: [T]here are signs of a growing Right Arabist split regarding US policy toward Iran. The factions within such a split are representing by Vice President Cheney, who is trying to bolster Saudi resolve to resist Iranian regional dominance, and James Baker, who is trying to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[10,8],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=208"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=208"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=208"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=208"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}