{"id":209,"date":"2006-12-14T10:57:20","date_gmt":"2006-12-14T15:57:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=209"},"modified":"2007-02-27T22:04:29","modified_gmt":"2007-02-28T03:04:29","slug":"2007-a-year-of-living-dangerously","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=209","title":{"rendered":"2007: A Year of Living Dangerously"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><meta http-equiv=\"Content-Language\" content=\"en-us\" \/> <meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=windows-1252\" \/><title>News media coverage of the Bush<\/title><a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=200\">News media coverage<\/a>  of the Bush administration&#8217;s Iraq Policy Review has focused on the possibility  of a dramatic turn in US policy in Iraq that would feature a retreat from  efforts to court the Sunni Arab insurgency and a full-throated support for a  &#8220;Shiite Option.&#8221;\u00c2\u00a0 In many ways, this would actually mark a return to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.zmag.org\/content\/showarticle.cfm?ItemID=10185\">the original  Right Zionist plan<\/a> for post-invasion Iraq.<\/p>\n<p>A dramatic move of this kind would be explosive in the Middle East and this  probably explains some of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2006\/12\/13\/world\/middleeast\/13prexy.html?bl&#038;ex=1166158800&#038;en=e7382703d5b0a0f6&#038;ei=5087\"> careful focus on the timing of any dramatic announcement<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 According to  the White House, the &#8220;new strategy&#8221;&#8211;<a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=169\">like  the old &#8220;new strategies&#8221;<\/a>&#8211;will arrive in 2007, an odd-numbered year when  political insulation in the US is at its peak.<\/p>\n<p>The delay from a pre-Christmas release is also likely a result of some ongoing factional  resistance to such a bold move.\u00c2\u00a0  Condoleezza Rice is reportedly ringing alarm bells about the Shiite Option:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Some members of the administration, including some in Vice President Dick  \tCheney&#8217;s office, have argued that the administration needs to provide clear  \tsupport to a strong Shiite majority government, but the <strong>State Department,  \tled by Condoleezza Rice, views that as a recipe for perpetual civil war<\/strong>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>An <a href=\"http:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/news\/main.jhtml?xml=\/news\/2006\/12\/13\/wirq13.xml\"> anti-Shiite coup<\/a> might still win out against the Shiite Option, although <a href=\"http:\/\/www.timesonline.co.uk\/article\/0,,2089-2496369,00.html\">reports  suggest otherwise<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 It is more than a little difficult to predict.<\/p>\n<p>While we wait, I have been trying to suggest that there is a Russian angle in the new  factionalism and it turns on relations between Russia and Iran.<\/p>\n<p>The Baker crowd favors engagement with Iran.\u00c2\u00a0 Neither an alliance  between Iran and Russia nor animosity between Iran and Israel is a bar for the  Baker faction.\u00c2\u00a0 The clearest recent statement of support for this position  arrives courtesy of Brent Scowcroft and his December 12, 2006 interview with the  state-run <a href=\"http:\/\/en.rian.ru\/analysis\/20061212\/56799719.html\">Russian  News Agency:<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>DMITRY BOBKOV: General  \tScowcroft, I remember when we met last year you mentioned there was no  \tappropriate dialog between the U.S. and Russia. Since that time U.S.  \tVice-President Dick Cheney has made a famous speech in Vilnius, Lithuania  \twhere he criticized Russia&#8217;s domestic policy and the lack of freedom. Do you  \tthink that Russia is currently moving in the right direction?<\/p>\n<p>SCOWCROFT: I think that the  \tsituation with U.S. &#8211; Russia relations has not gotten better since we talked  \tlast year; indeed, it&#8217;s probably gotten worse. I think we still suffer badly  \tfrom the lack of regular dialog. In analyzing the Russian policy, the  \tRussian government tends not to explain its actions very well. It simply  \tcomes out and does things, and then leaves people to figure out what they  \thave in mind. That&#8217;s not useful in developing understanding. How long it  \twill last, I don&#8217;t know. As we said last time, bureaucracy exists on both  \tsides; neither the U.S. bureaucracy nor Russian bureaucracy has developed  \tany affinity for the other. It&#8217;s still a suspicious relationship. For a time  \tunder the George W. Bush administration our bilateral relationship worked OK  \tbecause the two leaders had a good personal relationship. Now that&#8217;s not so  \tgood anymore. But potentially there is something to hold this relationship  \ttogether. There are many big issues around the world and our policies are  \tnot opposed to each other. Actually, they are congruous. And therefore there  \tis potential for cooperation on areas like North Korea, Iran and many other  \tareas. I think there are two serious problems in our partnership. One is the  \tsituation of democracy in Russia and the other concerns the southern border  \tregion of Russia. In both we are deeply suspicious of each other&#8217;s motives.  \tWhen we see Russia intervening in Georgia or Ukraine or other places we tend  \tto say that Putin is trying to recreate the Soviet Union. When we intervene  \tand praise democracy development in Georgia, Ukraine and so on, the Russians  \tsay we use democracy as an excuse to penetrate and drive them off.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>This is a swipe at Cheney, who has <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=207\">always led the campaign<\/a>  to intervene to grab power in Russia&#8217;s old imperial sphere of influence.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>DMITRY BOBKOV: Should Russia also start to  \tparticipate in solving the Iraq problem?<\/p>\n<p>SCOWCROFT: I would say yes. Because here  \tagain we have a common interest in the region. We&#8217;d like stability there.  \tInstability doesn&#8217;t serve either one of our interests.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Apart from the Baker-Scowcroft faction, there is <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=198\">also a faction<\/a>  that fears the Russian alliance with Iran much more than Iranian-Israeli  animosity and so favors engagement with Iran as a way to pry the incumbent  Iranian regime away from Russia.<\/p>\n<p>Cheney, on the other hand, represents <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=157\">a factional alliance<\/a>  between Right Zionists (like his key Middle East aide, David Wurmser) and Russia  hawks.\u00c2\u00a0 For this coalition, the US can neither <em>engage<\/em> the incumbent  Iranian regime nor <em>leave it<\/em> to Russia.\u00c2\u00a0 The only solution is to <em> win Iran for the US and Israel<\/em> and keep it from Russia.<\/p>\n<p>This points to the old Right Zionist notion that Iraqi Shiites will actually  be allied with the US in <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=95\">a  Shiite-led movement to overthrow the Iranian regime<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>And already&#8211;right on cue&#8211;there are the first <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nysun.com\/article\/44997\">signs of Right Zionist excitement<\/a>  over the prospect of undermining the incumbent Iranian regime from within.<\/p>\n<p>This strategy will put Saudi Arabia in an <a href=\"http:\/\/hosted.ap.org\/dynamic\/stories\/S\/SAUDI_TURMOIL?SITE=NYUTI&#038;SECTION=HOME&#038;TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&#038;CTIME=2006-12-13-16-20-33\"> extremely awkward position<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 On the one hand, there are surely signs of  Saudi-Iranian hostility over a host of issue, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.naharnet.com\/domino\/tn\/newsdesk.nsf\/0\/14366477B837848FC225724400491B00?OpenDocument\"> including Lebanon<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 A US-backed <a href=\"http:\/\/www.zmag.org\/content\/showarticle.cfm?ItemID=10601\">Israeli-Saudi  alliance against Iran<\/a> is hardly out of the question, at least in the short  term.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, the Saudis also surely know that any Right Zionist quest  for reconstructing the &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.palgrave-usa.com\/catalog\/product.aspx?isbn=1403962766\">Eternal  Iran<\/a>&#8221; is, in the last instance, only a prelude to the formation of a pro-US  Shia Crescent that would ultimately transform the <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=67\">Arab Gulf into a Persian  Gulf<\/a> and devour the Saudi dynasty itself.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>News media coverage of the BushNews media coverage of the Bush administration&#8217;s Iraq Policy Review has focused on the possibility of a dramatic turn in US policy in Iraq that would feature a retreat from efforts to court the Sunni Arab insurgency and a full-throated support for a &#8220;Shiite Option.&#8221;\u00c2\u00a0 In many ways, this would [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6,3,23],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=209"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=209"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=209"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=209"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}