{"id":210,"date":"2006-12-15T15:21:07","date_gmt":"2006-12-15T20:21:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=210"},"modified":"2007-02-27T22:04:18","modified_gmt":"2007-02-28T03:04:18","slug":"the-enemy-of-cheneys-enemy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=210","title":{"rendered":"The Enemy of Cheney&#8217;s Enemy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><meta http-equiv=\"Content-Language\" content=\"en-us\" \/> <meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=windows-1252\" \/><title>Enemy of My Enemy<\/title>Vice President Cheney <a href=\"http:\/\/www.post-gazette.com\/pg\/05021\/445889.stm\">talks tough on Iran<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0  Vice President Cheney <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/world\/story\/2006\/05\/04\/cheney-russia.html\">talks  tough on Russia<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>How would Cheney talk if he were forced to choose between confrontation with  Iran and confrontation between Russia?<\/p>\n<p>The most obvious answer is that Cheney will do everything in his power to  avoid having to make that choice.\u00c2\u00a0 Two recent news stories not show that  Cheney is very effective at keeping both regimes in the crosshairs without  capitulating to either.\u00c2\u00a0 But one might also hint at Cheney&#8217;s response if  forced to choose: Cheney&#8217;s paramount target is Russia.<\/p>\n<p>The first news story concerns US efforts to pass a UN resolution on Iranian  sanctions.\u00c2\u00a0 Here is how the Right Zionist <em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nysun.com\/article\/45098\">New York Sun<\/a><\/em> reported the  story:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Despite the departure of its ambassador to the United Nations, John  \tBolton, America is drawing fire at the U.N. Security Council. Several  \tcouncil members accused Washington&#8217;s U.N. representatives yesterday of  \tprovoking anger in an undiplomatic manner, possibly harming negotiations on  \ta resolution that would impose sanctions on Iran.<\/p>\n<p>The <strong>Security Council<\/strong> had just wrapped up a debate on Lebanon and the  \tIvory Coast last night and some <strong>members were planning a separate  \tdiscussion on Iran<\/strong> when <strong>an American representative, William Brencick,  \traised the issue of recent human rights violations in Belarus<\/strong>, a Russian  \tneighbor and ally.<\/p>\n<p>His remarks <strong>prompted the Russian ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, to storm out  \tof the meeting<\/strong>, saying he would not join the talks on Iran and that he  \tneeded &#8220;some time for reflection&#8221; and had &#8220;decided to relax a bit.&#8221; Asked  \twhy the consultations on Iran should not take place as scheduled, he said,  \t&#8220;Because I said so.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Brencick&#8217;s invocation of Belarus was part of a far larger <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=207\">Cheney-led initiative to  pry former Soviet republics away<\/a> from Russian influence.<\/p>\n<p>The <em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/455731ac-8ad7-11db-8940-0000779e2340.html\"> Financial Times<\/a><\/em> helps put the Belarus story in the context of Great  Power Rivalry, in which the US is trying to exploit tensions between Russia and  Belarus.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Russia is set to deal a double blow to the economy of one of its closest  \tallies \u00e2\u20ac\u201c potentially making life much more difficult for the man the US has  \tcalled \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Europe\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s last dictator\u00e2\u20ac\u009d.<\/p>\n<p>[Bu] pressing for Belarus to pay much more for its natural gas, Moscow&#8230;  \tcould sharply reduce or wipe out the $4bn-plus effective annual subsidy  \tRussia provides to Belarus, which has helped Alexander Lukashenko, its  \tauthoritarian president, deliver higher wages and living standards to his  \t10m people.<\/p>\n<p>That, say analysts, could make it harder to sustain the support that saw  \tMr Lukashenko re-elected last March to a third presidential term with 82 per  \tcent of the vote \u00e2\u20ac\u201c albeit in a poll international observers condemned as  \tbelow international standards. It could also drive a wedge between countries  \twith close cultural and historic links\u00e2\u20ac\u00a6.<\/p>\n<p>This is a sharp turnaround from nine months ago, when Russian president  \tVladimir Putin was criticised for being one of the few world leaders to  \tcongratulate Mr Lukashenko on his controversial election victory. It is the  \tmore surprising since Russia and Belarus signed agreements in the mid-1990s  \ton creating a political and economic union, including a common currency and  \tunion constitution.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts from both countries suggest Moscow is penalising Mr Lukashenko  \tfor not delivering on pledges of closer integration with Russia, including  \tthe currency union and <strong>selling half of Beltransgaz, the Belarusian gas  \tdistributor, to Gazprom, the Russian natural gas giant. Beltransgaz controls  \tthe gas export pipeline to western Europe\u00e2\u20ac\u00a6<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Belarus president now has a difficult choice. He is loath to cede a  \thalf-share to Russia in Beltransgaz, which one western diplomat calls  \tBelarus\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s \u00e2\u20ac\u0153sacred cow\u00e2\u20ac\u009d.<br \/>\nBut even a limited gas price increase could render much of the country\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s  \tlargely state-owned industry uncompetitive \u00e2\u20ac\u201c and handing over the  \tBeltransgaz stake would probably only delay Russia\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s demands for a higher  \tgas price.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>In terms of the UN resolution on Iran, the &#8220;Belarus&#8221; affair implies that the  effort to court Russian participation in the US-led UN effort to isolate Iran  will <em>not<\/em> be allowed to interfere with ongoing battles US efforts to  undermine Russian control of the former Soviet republics.<\/p>\n<p>The second news story concerns a similar battle over the fate of the former  Soviet republic of Georgia.<\/p>\n<p>As the <em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/92fee430-8ae2-11db-8940-0000779e2340.html\"> Financial Times<\/a><\/em> reports, Russia is threatening to cut off natural gas  supplies to Georgia.\u00c2\u00a0 Georgia has two possible alternative sources of  natural gas that would help break the Russian hold on Georgia.<\/p>\n<p>The first alternative source of natural gas, as the <em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/e4f52b20-8ad6-11db-8940-0000779e2340.html\"> Financial Times<\/a><\/em> reports, is a new 690km gas pipeline from Baku,  Azerbaijan that will provide Georgia with gas that does not travel through  Russian territory.<\/p>\n<p>For Cheney, this is the key alternative.\u00c2\u00a0 However, it may not be  sufficient to meet Georgian gas needs.<\/p>\n<p>The other major Georgian alternative source of natural gas is Iran.<\/p>\n<p>If the Baku gas proves insufficient, Cheney would have to choose between his  quest to keep Georgia from Russia and his quest to keep Georgia from Iran.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tass.ru\/eng\/level2.html?NewsID=11078970&#038;PageNum=0\"> Reports from Cheney&#8217;s recent meetings<\/a> with the Georgian Prime Minister seem  to indicate that if push comes to shove, Cheney may blink on Iran.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>At present Georgia is in talks with Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran on gas  \tsupplies to the republic. <strong>The United States is against long-term  \tstrategic partnership between Tbilisi and Teheran in the natural gas sphere,  \thowever, does not rule out possible supplies of Iranian gas<\/strong> to Georgia  \tin the event of force majeure as it happened in late January due to an  \texplosion on a gas pipeline in North Ossetia.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>A <a href=\"http:\/\/www.regnum.ru\/english\/iran\/753887.html\">Regnum News Agency  report<\/a> makes it clear, however, that the US would obviously rather not have  to make this choice:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u00e2\u20ac\u0153We have been working on the question of receiving natural gas from  \talternative sources. First of all, we shall accomplish talks with Azerbaijan  \tand Turkey. Only after that, if it is necessary, we shall continue our talks  \twith Iran,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d Zurab Nogaideli declared. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153But the only thing is clear: Georgia  \twill not be left without gas in winter,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d the prime minister said.<\/p>\n<p>US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza<strong> <\/strong>expressed his  \thope talking to reporters in Washington that Georgia would receive enough  \tnatural gas from the Azerbaijani Shah Deniz gas field, and it will not have  \tto import gas from Iran. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153We comprehend that Georgia can find itself in a  \tdifficult situation, and we are interested that the country will not be left  \twithout natural gas. We know, Georgia has been conducting talks with the  \tneighboring countries, Azerbaijan and Turkey on the question of receiving  \tadditional amount of gas. I think, this amount of gas will be enough not to  \timport gas from Iran,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d Matthew Bryza said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Keep an eye on this story.\u00c2\u00a0 It may say quite a bit about Cheney&#8217;s  priorities.<\/p>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Enemy of My EnemyVice President Cheney talks tough on Iran.\u00c2\u00a0 Vice President Cheney talks tough on Russia. How would Cheney talk if he were forced to choose between confrontation with Iran and confrontation between Russia? The most obvious answer is that Cheney will do everything in his power to avoid having to make that choice.\u00c2\u00a0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6,23],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=210"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=210"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=210"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=210"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}