Are the Saudis and the Iranians patching things up, even as the US tries to foment regional tension between Sunnis and Shiites in order to build US support for an aggressive policy toward Iran?<\/p>\n
The headlines certainly suggest as much.\u00c2\u00a0 Reuters<\/a> reports:<\/p>\n Iran asked Saudi Arabia to help ease tensions between the Islamic \tRepublic and the United States as Washington held out the possibility of \t“engagement” with Tehran if it changed tack in Iraq.<\/p>\n A letter was delivered by [Ali Larijani] Tehran’s chief nuclear \tnegotiator to the Saudi King from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali \tKhamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a Saudi official said on Monday. \tThe official said Iran wanted Saudi leaders to relay a goodwill message to \tWashington.<\/p>\n <\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n The Iranian Foreign Ministry has subsequently denied the report<\/a> and called “baseless” the claim that Iran asked Riyadh to mediate between Iran and the US.<\/p>\n But the real problem with the “detente” scenario may be that it assumes that foreign policy is directed by a unified actor<\/em> each of the three countries: Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.\u00c2\u00a0 It would likely be far more accurate to say that some<\/em> Saudis and some<\/em> Iranians want to patch things up, even as some<\/em> in the US press for a more aggressive policy toward Iran.<\/p>\n Factional Iran<\/strong><\/p>\n The factions in Iran are complex, but most reports that bother to even note the possibility of internal fissures make clear that Ali Larijani represents an Iranian faction that favors improved relations with the Saudis.\u00c2\u00a0 The Reuters report<\/a> about the Iranian Foreign Ministry, for example, presents Larijani as a factional player:<\/p>\n Larijani’s visit came shortly before U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza \tRice arrived in Saudi Arabia on Monday, as part of a Middle East tour. Rice \tand other U.S. leaders have put a fresh emphasis on checking Iran’s \tinfluence in Iraq and elsewhere.<\/p>\n Larijani’s visit, said Iranian political scientist Nasser Hadian-Jazy, “is a \tcounter move to what Secretary Rice is going to do to unite the Arabs \tagainst Iran.”<\/p>\n But he said it also shows the renewed influence of moderate \tconservatives, like Larijani<\/strong>, amid growing public criticism of \tAhmadinejad and his anti-U.S. speeches that are seen to have exacerbated \ttensions, particularly over the nuclear file.<\/p>\n Some politicians and officials say Larijani and other moderate officials \tare frustrated by Ahmadinejad<\/strong>, who they say has provoked confrontation \tand made it more difficult for Iran to secure what it calls its “nuclear \trights”.<\/p>\n “In a calm and quiet atmosphere, Iran can neutralise America’s pressure on \tits atomic work. Fiery speeches worsen the situation,” said one official, \twho asked not to be identified because of sensitivity of the issue.<\/p>\n Ahmadinejad may not be the most powerful figure in Iran, where the final say \trests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but Western diplomats say \this provocative public tone has helped drive a tougher line.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Factional United States<\/strong><\/p>\n The outline of key factional lines within the US represent a split among Right Arabists with figures like James Baker and Flynt Leverett<\/a> eager to find a way to do business at least some element of the incumbent regime in Iran and Right Arabists like James Akins<\/a> who are very hawkish on Iran.<\/p>\n Along with his Right Zionist advisor<\/a> David Wurmser, Cheney is undeniably hawkish on Iran, as he made clear in his recent interview with Fox News<\/a>.<\/p>\n WALLACE: What’s the message that you’re sending to Iran? And how tough \tare you prepared to get?<\/p>\n CHENEY: Well, I think it’s been pretty well-known that Iran is fishing in \ttroubled waters<\/strong>, if you will, inside Iraq<\/strong>. And the president has \tresponded to that, as you suggest. I think it’s exactly the right thing to \tdo.<\/p>\n And Iran’s a problem in a much larger sense<\/strong>. They have begun to \tconduct themselves in ways that have created a great deal of tension \tthroughout the region. If you go and talk with the Gulf states or if you \ttalk with the Saudis or if you talk about the Israelis or the Jordanians, \tthe entire region is worried<\/strong>, partly because of the conduct of Mr. \tAhmadinejad, the president of Iran, who appears to be a radical, a man who \tbelieves in an apocalyptic vision of the future and who thinks it’s \timminent.<\/p>\n At the same time, of course, they’re pursuing the acquisition of nuclear \tweapons. They are in a position where they sit astride the Straits of \tHormuz, where over 20 percent of the world’s supply of oil transits every \tsingle day, over 18 million barrels a day<\/strong>.<\/p>\n They use Hezbollah as a surrogate. And working through Syria with \tHezbollah, they’re trying to topple the democratically elected government in \t[Lebanon]<\/strong>. Working through Hamas and their support for Hamas in Gaza, \tthey’re interfering in the peace process<\/strong>.<\/p>\n So the threat that Iran represents is growing, it’s multi- dimensional, \tand it is, in fact, of concern to everybody in the region<\/strong>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Factional Saudi Arabia<\/strong><\/p>\n The most difficult factional battle to trace–on Iran and much else–is surely the struggle within the Saudi regime.\u00c2\u00a0 Transparency is minimal and open source news analysis is surely inadequate and often simplistic.<\/p>\n The hypothesis that most recently made news<\/a> as that Cheney and Prince Bandar–and perhaps Crown Prince Sultan–were joined in a hawkish alliance regarding Iran while Saudi King Abdullah–along with Foreign Minister Prince Saud and former Saudi Ambassador to the US Prince Turki–favored a more conciliatory approach toward Iran.<\/p>\n It is difficult, at the moment, to find much sunlight between Saudi royal factions.\u00c2\u00a0 On his recent trip to Saudi Arabia, Iran’s Ali Larijani met with all the key players, including Bandar<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 And according to official Iranian news<\/a>, the Iranian Ambassador to Iran recently had an audience with Bandar’s father, Crown Prince Sultan.<\/span><\/p>\n Still, I suspect that the factionalism remains.\u00c2\u00a0 An Associated Press report<\/a> from January 8, 2007 speculated that tensions would re-appear by March because King Abdullah was expected to announce a cabinet reshuffle that would go to the heart of some of the battles for power within the Kingdom.<\/span><\/p>\n King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is considering a major \tCabinet reshuffle soon, the first since he ascended to the throne of the \toil-rich kingdom, diplomats and Saudi media said Monday.<\/p>\n The reshuffle may include key posts such as foreign minister, which has been \theld by Prince Saud al-Faisal for more than 30 years, and the influential \toil minister, they said…<\/p>\n “It is up to the (king) to decide, and no one has the right to talk about \tthat except him,” Crown Prince Sultan was quoted as saying in the Asharq Al-Awsat \tnewspaper, which is owned by the Saudi royal family. “What he decides is \tgood for all.”<\/p>\n It is rare for a royal family member to even refer to such an issue publicly \tand was viewed as a significant hint that changes are coming…<\/p>\n Saudis who have intimate knowledge of the discussions regarding the possible \treshuffle said al-Faisal, who has had health problems, might be replaced by \tCrown Prince Sultan’s son Prince Bandar, a former ambassador to Washington \tand current secretary of the National Security Council. They spoke on \tcondition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak to the \tmedia.<\/p>\n The Saudi independent Internet news service, Elaph… said veteran Oil \tMinister Ali Naimi is among those expected to leave their posts. Naimi, 67 \tand an oil engineer, has been in his job for more than a decade…<\/p>\n The royal family and government leaders are believed to be deeply divided \tover how to handle the growing crisis in Iraq and Iran’s increasing regional \tinfluence.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n If speculation about factional lines are correct, then the selection of Prince Bandar as Foreign Minister and the departure of Oil Minister Ali Naimi will both mark major victories for the factions most closely aligned with Cheney.<\/span><\/p>\n Taken together, these events would tend to undermine any spirit of detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran.<\/span><\/p>\n Many questions remain, but at least one concerns Iraq.\u00c2\u00a0 Would Bandar’s faction support a Shiite Iraq under the influence of Sistani<\/a><\/em>, or would he demand–as his price for cooperation on Iran–the restoration of Sunni rule under an extra-constitutional “national salvation government,” i.e., an anti-Shiite coup<\/a>?<\/span><\/p>\n For the record, I would not rule out the probability of a Bandar-Sistani axis.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Are the Saudis and the Iranians patching things up, even as the US tries to foment regional tension between Sunnis and Shiites in order to build US support for an aggressive policy toward Iran? The headlines certainly suggest as much.\u00c2\u00a0 Reuters reports: Iran asked Saudi Arabia to help ease tensions between the Islamic Republic and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6,3,8],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=226"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=226"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=226"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=226"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}