{"id":233,"date":"2007-01-26T12:02:10","date_gmt":"2007-01-26T17:02:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=233"},"modified":"2007-01-29T16:26:08","modified_gmt":"2007-01-29T21:26:08","slug":"divided-from-this-moment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=233","title":{"rendered":"Divided From This Moment"},"content":{"rendered":"

The easiest time to be an Iraq war critic is when the US has faced both Sunni and<\/em> a Shiite uprisings, as it did in April 2004. At such times it appears that the US has precious few Iraqi allies–apart from collaborating Kurds.<\/p>\n

At the same time, there are at least two<\/em> very different and potentially incompatible positions<\/a> from which to hit the Bush administration during such periods.<\/p>\n

Some critics, including Right Arabists of the Baker\/Scowcroft variety, want the US to try to coopt the Sunni insurgency and help restore<\/em> Sunni Arab rule in Iraq, even if by extra-constitutional means (i.e., a coup by Sunni opposition forces in Jordan<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Other critics, including Right Zionists of the David Wurmser\/Reuel Marc Gerecht variety, want the US to do the opposite: to crush the Sunni insurgency in order to woo Shiites<\/a>–including those loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr–and use popular democracy to tilt the balance of power in Iraq toward Shiite political dominance.<\/p>\n

After inaugurating the war along Right Zionist lines in early 2003, the Bush administration has essentially waffled between these two alternatives ever since.<\/p>\n

At one point in late December 2006, it appeared that the Bush administration was going to move decisively one way or the other<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Bush’s January 10, 2006 was a “flop,” however because it appeared to stick with the muddle in the middle<\/a>, sticking with Zalmay Khalilzad’s “national reconciliation” project, along with a troop surge. As a result, critics of all stripes<\/em> are having a field day because after all the deliberations and debate, the Bush administration appears to be “staying the course.”<\/p>\n

Here is the strange part: there seem to be signs that the Bush administration is <\/em>actually changing course with an increasingly dramatic tilt toward the Iraqi Shia–the so-called “Shiite Option<\/a>” or “80 Percent Doctrine<\/a>.”<\/p>\n

But they seem quite reluctant to say so<\/em>. Why? Why is it that the Bush administration has never<\/em> come clean about its tilt toward the Shia?<\/p>\n

Of course, the simple reason is that they don’t want to “confess” to such a plan because some very powerful forces oppose<\/em> a tilt toward the Shia.<\/p>\n

Do they think folks like James Baker and Brent Scowcroft won’t notice<\/em> if the policy is never declared? Do they think Sunni Arabs in Iraq won’t notice? Do they think King Abdullah of Jordan, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, or Egyptian President Mubarak won’t notice? Do they think Americans would<\/em> notice (or care?) about such things? I don’t get it.<\/p>\n

Here are some signs of the (unstated) tilt toward the Iraqi Shia:<\/p>\n

US counter-insurgency efforts in Baghdad are, thus far, focusing on Sunni insurgents. The Haifa Street operations that I mentioned in an earlier post<\/a> have continued<\/a>.<\/p>\n

US relations with Muqtada al-Sadr appear to be improving<\/a> as the UK<\/a> and US forces actively court political leaders in Sadr City<\/a> and appear ready to coopt the Shia militia<\/a> as part of a security plan to protect Shiites from sectarian attacks.<\/p>\n

Iraqi Sunni politicians have taken notice and the spirit of “national reconciliation”<\/a> in the Iraqi parliament is being seriously challenged. The Los Angeles Times<\/a><\/em> reports:<\/p>\n

Iraq’s Shiite prime minister exchanged heated words with a Sunni Arab \tlawmaker over the country’s new security plan, leading parliament to \ttemporarily suspend a raucous debate and Iraqi television to halt its \tcoverage…<\/p>\n

The parliamentary clash took place as Prime Minister Nouri Maliki \tpresented his arguments in favor of the U.S.-backed security plan he called \ta “strategy to impose the law.” The plan would leave no havens for \tmilitants, regardless of religious or political affiliations, he told \tlawmakers.<\/p>\n

“Some say this plan targets Sunnis or Shiites. The fact is this plan targets \tall who stand in the way of the law,” Maliki said.<\/p>\n

Sheik Abdel Nasser Janabi, a Sunni Arab cleric<\/strong> and legislator from a \tregion south of Baghdad notorious as the “triangle of death,” responded by \tprotesting a major sweep by U.S. and Iraqi troops Wednesday through Haifa \tStreet<\/strong>, a Sunni neighborhood near the Green Zone that is dominated by \tanti-government militants. Sporadic blasts continued Thursday in the area \twhere more than 30 gunmen have been killed in fierce fighting, Iraqi \tofficials said.<\/p>\n

Janabi demanded that security forces lift their cordon around the area, \tinsisting to loud protests from the Shiite-dominated chamber that “there are \tno terrorists in Haifa Street.”<\/strong><\/p>\n

“Aren’t there terrorists in Sadr City or Shula?” he said<\/strong>, referring \tto two Shiite militia strongholds.<\/p>\n

Janabi accused Maliki’s administration of purging Sunni Arabs from the \tgovernment, arresting pilgrims returning from Saudi Arabia and imposing \tpolitically motivated death sentences, a possible reference to the execution \tlast month of former President Saddam Hussein.<\/p>\n

“We cannot trust this premiership,” Janabi said, as the shouting escalated \taround him.<\/p>\n

Maliki retorted, “All I could tell our brother the sheik is that he will \ttrust in this premiership once we present his file and hold him accountable \tfor it.” As Shiite legislators loudly applauded, he said, “One hundred fifty \tkidnapped individuals in his area \u00e2\u20ac\u201d why doesn’t he talk about that?”<\/p>\n

Mahmoud Mashadani, parliament speaker and a Sunni, interrupted the exchange, \tchiding Maliki for making “unacceptable” accusations and adding with heavy \tsarcasm that “the security plan will be very successful because you people \tare divided from this moment<\/strong>.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Has the US now “picked a winner” in Iraq’s civil war? Is it prepared to ally itself fully with Iraqi Shiites?<\/p>\n

If so, listen for more howls of protest from Right Arabists. And smug smiles from Right Zionists.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The easiest time to be an Iraq war critic is when the US has faced both Sunni and a Shiite uprisings, as it did in April 2004. At such times it appears that the US has precious few Iraqi allies–apart from collaborating Kurds. At the same time, there are at least two very different and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3,10,11],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/233"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=233"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/233\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=233"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=233"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=233"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}