{"id":239,"date":"2007-02-05T11:44:55","date_gmt":"2007-02-05T16:44:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=239"},"modified":"2007-02-05T11:44:55","modified_gmt":"2007-02-05T16:44:55","slug":"our-man-in-turkmenistan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=239","title":{"rendered":"Our Man in Turkmenistan?"},"content":{"rendered":"
Sometimes Great Power Rivalry ca<\/title>Sometimes Great Power Rivalry can facilitate democratic or populist uprisings.\u00c2\u00a0 Sometimes, not so much.<\/p>\n<p>In Turkmenistan, not so much.\u00c2\u00a0 At least, not yet.<\/p>\n<p>The <em>Washington Post<\/em> has published <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/article\/2007\/02\/03\/AR2007020301376.html\"> a report<\/a> on the “battle” to succeed the late Turkmenistan President Saparmurad Niyazov who died in late December.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Acting President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, 49, will almost certainly \twin when the Central Asian country’s citizens go to the polls Feb. 11. His \topponents, a deputy minister and four regional officials, are willing foils, \taccording to analysts and exiled politicians.<\/p>\n<p>Murad Karyev, the supposedly neutral chairman of the Central Election \tCommission, has already said Berdymukhammedov is the best man for the job.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Any protests from the US and the idealistic “<a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=144\">true believers<\/a>” in the Bush Administration who reportedly <em>really believe<\/em> in democracy?\u00c2\u00a0 Not so much.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The opposition-in-exile has expressed frustration at what it sees as \tmuted statements from those countries about the need for real democratic \tchange.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>In <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=214\">a previous post<\/a>, I argued that in the Caspian energy pipeline rivalry between Washington and Russia, the Turkmenitstan stakes have been very high.\u00c2\u00a0 The <em>Washington Post<\/em> report explains:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>For the outside world, the direction Turkmenistan takes will carry \tprofound implications for energy security. <strong>The former Soviet republic is \tbecoming the focus of competition among Russia, China and the West as they \tvie for its natural gas resources<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Most of <strong>Turkmenistan’s gas is now exported through Russian pipelines<\/strong>. \tThe supply could become vital to the ability of Gazprom, the Russian energy \tgiant, to meet rising demand over the next decade. But <strong>Western \tgovernments would like to see construction of new export routes that bypass \tRussia and diversify the supply chain, something Niyazov had resisted<\/strong>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Thus far, however, <em>all <\/em>of the Great Powers appear content to compete <em>exclusively<\/em> for the loyalty of the incumbent authorities rather than making an appeal to dissident or popular forces:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Russian President Vladimir Putin has embraced Berdymukhammedov….<\/p>\n<p>The United States and the European Union have stepped up contacts with \tTurkmenistan’s new leadership.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The US attempt to “flip” the Russian-backed incumbent regime, rather than facilitate rebellion against it, was already clear when Richard A. Boucher, Assistant Secretary For South And Central Asian Affairs, traveled to Turkmenistan for the Niyazov funeral.<\/p>\n<p>Boucher met with Berdymukhammedov and has been <a href=\"http:\/\/turkmenistan.usembassy.gov\/interview_Boucher_VOA.html\">clear ever since<\/a> that he wants to cut a deal at the top:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>I wanted to go to the funeral to express our condolences, first of all, \tto the people of Turkmenistan, but also to signal — to say clearly that we \tare ready for a new beginning if they’re ready to start something new. And \tI’m not sure how far I can elaborate it at this point. We’re certainly \tinterested in <strong>a smooth and peaceful transition in Turkmenistan<\/strong>. We \tunderstand that people have lost their leader and they have hope for the \tfuture, but they also have some uncertainty about it, so we want to work \twith them as they move forward…<\/p>\n<p>As we hope Turkmenistan will move forward to a new future, we’re quite \tready for a new relationship…<\/p>\n<p>QUESTION: Yeah, but [Berdimuhhamedov]… didn’t mention anything about \tthe political reforms.<\/p>\n<p>ASSISTANT SECRETARY BOUCHER: <strong>No, he didn’t. Obviously, we think that \tneeds to be part of the package, creating a more open society<\/strong>, a more \tdynamic society, more creative society, a better economic opportunity for \teveryone. Those things all go together, and so we do think that needs to be \tpart of the package; <strong>but — you know, where they need — where they’re \tready to get started, we’re ready to get started as well<\/strong>. Education, \taccess to information, economic opportunity, entrepreneurship, these are \tthings that are fundamental to creating a more open society and we’d \tobviously like to see it become a society where people of Turkmenistan get \tthe kind of justice and openness that they deserve.<\/p>\n<p>QUESTION: <strong>Almost all Turkmen opposition are currently abroad.<\/strong> <strong>Will \tthe United States support Turkmen opposition?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>ASSISTANT SECRETARY BOUCHER: What we have said, what we’ll continue to make \tclear is that <strong>we look for a more open society<\/strong> where everyone can \tparticipate in the social life, the political life, the economic life. \tThat’s fundamental and that needs to be part of the change. <strong>But those \tdecisions are going to have to be made in the end in Turkmenistan<\/strong>. And \tso we’re encouraging that kind of change, but I can’t — we’re not \tsupporting particular people one way or the other. We’re supporting a more \topen society, and continue to make clear that that’s the direction that we \tthink they have to go.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I know what you are thinking: That Boucher… he must be one of those naive, democracy-loving, idealistic, messianic missionary zealots from the crazy Cheney administration!<\/p>\n<p>But let’s just wait and see.\u00c2\u00a0 It ain’t over until it is over.<\/p>\n<p>If the US manages to flip the incumbent regime and get to the natural gas, then all will remain quiet on the US side.\u00c2\u00a0 But don’t forget: the incumbent regime is aligned with Putin.\u00c2\u00a0 Will Putin remain quiet if the US flips Berdimuhhamedov and he loses his monopoly on the gas?<\/p>\n<p>If Putin pressures Berdimuhhamedov to show Boucher the door, will the US continue to<em> remain<\/em> silent?\u00c2\u00a0 Or will the US suddenly and conveniently discover the virtues of a democratic uprising in Turkmenistan?<\/p>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sometimes Great Power Rivalry caSometimes Great Power Rivalry can facilitate democratic or populist uprisings.\u00c2\u00a0 Sometimes, not so much. In Turkmenistan, not so much.\u00c2\u00a0 At least, not yet. The Washington Post has published a report on the “battle” to succeed the late Turkmenistan President Saparmurad Niyazov who died in late December. Acting President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, 49, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[25,24],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/239"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=239"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/239\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=239"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=239"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=239"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}