{"id":242,"date":"2007-02-12T11:48:53","date_gmt":"2007-02-12T16:48:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=242"},"modified":"2007-02-12T11:48:53","modified_gmt":"2007-02-12T16:48:53","slug":"clear-present-dangers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=242","title":{"rendered":"Clear &#038; Present Dangers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><meta http-equiv=\"Content-Language\" content=\"en-us\" \/> <meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=windows-1252\" \/><title>The US is obviously beating the<\/title>The US is beating the drums for war with Iran.\u00c2\u00a0 The news is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/article\/2007\/02\/11\/AR2007021101328.html\"> full of chatter<\/a> about the emergent <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/article\/2007\/01\/25\/AR2007012501555.html\"> US-Sunni Arab alliance against Iran<\/a>, discussed last summer in my ZNet essay,  &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.zmag.org\/content\/showarticle.cfm?ItemID=10601\">The Devil  Wears Persian<\/a>.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>In the last few days, however, the Bush administration has focused on  allegations that Iran is supplying deadly weapons <strong>used against US forces in  Iraq<\/strong>.\u00c2\u00a0 The <em>New York Times<\/em> started the cycle of coverage with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2007\/02\/10\/world\/middleeast\/10weapons.html?fta=y&#038;pagewanted=all\"> a Michael Gordon article<\/a> that has already generated <a href=\"http:\/\/www.salon.com\/opinion\/greenwald\/2007\/02\/10\/iran\/index.html\"> well-deserved criticism<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Now, major news outlets are reporting on a &#8220;long-awaited&#8221; presentation of  more alleged evidence that Iran has been supplying lethal weapons to Iraqi  Shiites.\u00c2\u00a0 Both the <em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2007\/02\/12\/world\/middleeast\/12cnd-iran.html?ei=5094&#038;en=89335545fd701ccb&#038;hp=&#038;ex=1171342800&#038;partner=homepage&#038;pagewanted=all\"> New York Times<\/a><\/em> and the <em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/article\/2007\/02\/11\/AR2007021100479.html\"> Washington Post<\/a><\/em> carried news of this unusual &#8220;briefing.&#8221;\u00c2\u00a0 The <em> Post<\/em> describes the circumstances of the briefing:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The officials said they would speak only on the condition of anonymity,  \tso the explosives expert and the analyst, who would normally not speak to  \tthe news media, could provide information directly. The analyst&#8217;s exact  \ttitle and full name were not revealed to reporters. The officials released a  \tPowerPoint presentation including photographs of the weaponry, but did not  \tallow media representatives to record, photograph or videotape the briefing  \tor the materials on display.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Why does it seem like the Bush administration doesn&#8217;t want to be pinned down  on this one?<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s stipulate, if only for the sake of argument, that the allegations are  true.\u00c2\u00a0 What does it imply about Iraq?\u00c2\u00a0 That Iraqi Shiites represent  the greatest threat to US forces in Iraq?<\/p>\n<p>Right Zionist Reuel Marc Gerecht <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aei.org\/publications\/pubID.25477,filter.all\/pub_detail.asp\"> argues<\/a> that Iraqi Shiite militias are <em>not<\/em> the central problem in  Iraq:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Our role now is to stop the radicalization on the Shia side&#8211;and you can  \tonly do this by breaking the back of the [Sunni] insurgency, something we&#8217;ve  \tdiligently avoided doing since the fall of 2003. And it&#8217;s worthwhile to  \trepeat: <strong>They, not the Shia militants, are responsible for the vast  \tmajority of American dead and wounded<\/strong>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>One might argue that Iraq Shiite militias are now the greatest threat to <em> Iraqi political stability and national reconciliation<\/em>, as the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.guardian.co.uk\/Iraq\/Story\/0,,1975404,00.html\">Pentagon  recently suggested<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 Even <em>if<\/em> that were true, however&#8230; even <em> if<\/em> the US were in Iraq primarily to help achieve national reconciliation&#8230;  it would still be a very big leap to suggest that Iran is the greatest threat to  US troops.<\/p>\n<p>The Bush administration seems determined to &#8220;reveal&#8221; details about Iran&#8217;s  efforts to foment violence in Iraq.\u00c2\u00a0 What it actually reveals, along the  way, is something about the way it views public opinion regarding US foreign  policy.\u00c2\u00a0 In the case of Iran, as in Iraq, the Bush administration<em> <\/em> assumes that there is<em> <\/em><strong>absolutely no appetite<\/strong> for &#8220;foreign  entanglements&#8221; or military adventures unless American lives are<em> (allegedly) <\/em>directly threatened.<\/p>\n<p>Even when the Bush administration has &#8220;intelligible&#8221; (if not morally  defensible) imperialist ambitions, it feels compelled to develop arguments that  focus on immediate threats to US personnel rather than geo-political strategy.<\/p>\n<p>The new &#8220;intelligence&#8221; on Iran tells us less about Iran than it does about  Bush administration views regarding the popular political legitimacy of US  empire.<\/p>\n<p>Right Arabist Paul Pillar makes a similar point to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.warandpiece.com\/blogdirs\/005629.html\">Laura Rozen<\/a> in the <em>National Journal.\u00c2\u00a0 <\/em>[Note: the excerpt on Rozen&#8217;s blog leaves off the  final part of the Pillar quote about the &#8220;more legitimate&#8221; concern about the  Iranian nuclear threat&#8230; As <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=90\">I&#8217;ve argued before<\/a>,  many Right Arabists have a soft spot for a hard line on Iran.]<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Even if this PowerPoint presentation eventually gets made public &#8230; what  \tdoes this show us as to where Iran is really coming from?&#8221; [former National  \tIntelligence Council Middle East analyst Paul] Pillar asked. &#8220;What is the  \tlarger significance? Even if Iranian assistance to an Iraqi group is proven  \tto everyone&#8217;s satisfaction, <strong>the [administration&#8217;s] policy never rested on  \tthat. The policy [is being driven by a] much larger sense of Iran as the  \tprime bete noire in the region, and that is why the administration is trying  \tto put together these coalitions with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the Sunni  \tstates, that we&#8217;ve been reading about. None of this hinges [on the Iran  \tdossier].<\/strong> We are not going to call this off if we can&#8217;t prove that Iran  \tis furnishing munitions to Iraqi groups&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>It is just one more thing &#8212; along with <strong>the nuclear issue, which is  \treally more legitimate in a basic kind of way<\/strong> &#8212; [in the  \tadministration&#8217;s case that] Iran is doing nasty things, therefore it&#8217;s  \tappropriate to beat the drum about Iran. That&#8217;s what it&#8217;s come down to.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.zmag.org\/content\/showarticle.cfm?ItemID=10185\"> Geopolitical strategy<\/a> may be the underlying basis for US policy in the Gulf.\u00c2\u00a0  But the Bush administration seems convinced the American people don&#8217;t think it  is worth the effort.<\/p>\n<p>Hence, the necessary centrality in all cases of an immediate risk, however  twisted or convoluted the argument.<\/p>\n<p><em>The Bush administration, for all its bellicosity, has internalized the  anti-imperialist &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=126\">new  isolationism<\/a>&#8221; of the American public<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The US is obviously beating theThe US is beating the drums for war with Iran.\u00c2\u00a0 The news is full of chatter about the emergent US-Sunni Arab alliance against Iran, discussed last summer in my ZNet essay, &#8220;The Devil Wears Persian.&#8221; In the last few days, however, the Bush administration has focused on allegations that Iran [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6,3,15],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/242"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=242"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/242\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=242"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=242"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=242"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}