{"id":253,"date":"2007-03-05T06:54:29","date_gmt":"2007-03-05T11:54:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=253"},"modified":"2007-03-05T16:05:40","modified_gmt":"2007-03-05T21:05:40","slug":"do-they-hate-each-other","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=253","title":{"rendered":"Do They Hate Each Other?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Among market watchers, the cover of Time<\/em> magazine is sometimes viewed as a contrary indicator<\/a>. By the time any trend reaches the cover, the moment has often passed.<\/p>\n

So when Time<\/em> recently ran a cover about Sunni-Shiite tensions–“Why They Hate Each Other<\/a>“–my immediate reaction was to predict peace in our time.<\/p>\n

Right on cue, Saudi King Abdullah hosted Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad<\/a> for a one day summit in Riyadh.<\/p>\n

I’ve been writing about ways in which Sunni-Shiite tensions, apart from any self-generating internal logic they may have, also map onto factional fights between Right Zionists and Right Arabists in the US. The was the question at the heart of two ZNet essays, “Beyond Incompetence<\/a>” and “The Devil Wears Persian<\/a>.”<\/p>\n

More recently, I have also argued that there may be signs that these same factional splits might also map onto some internal political turmoil<\/a> within the House of Saud.<\/p>\n

According to this scenario, Saudi King Abdullah represents a faction seeking to calm<\/em> regional tensions<\/a> and foster national reconciliation within the Palestinian Authority<\/a>, in Lebanon<\/a>, and, presumably, in Iraq.<\/p>\n

Eli Lake of the Right Zionist New York Sun<\/em> reports<\/a> that US efforts to rally Sunni regimes against Iran may be facing some significant resistance.<\/p>\n

\n

Secretary of State Rice’s “Sunni strategy” is running into trouble.<\/p>\n

Her idea was to bolster a ring of moderate Sunni Arab allies as a front-line \tdefense against Iran’s regional ambitions. But the Sunnis don’t appear to be \tcooperating…<\/p>\n

This weekend, Iran’s Holocaust-denying president was f\u00c3\u00aated by King Abdullah, \tthe Saudi monarch who rules the linchpin Sunni state in Ms. Rice’s attempted \tanti- Iran alliance. Meanwhile, Iran’s Sunni proxy in Gaza, Hamas, is \tdivvying up key posts with Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah Party in a Palestinian \tunity government. The negotiations stem from a Saudi-brokered deal forged \tlast month in Mecca, a pact that has worried Israeli leaders and some in \tCongress because it does not require Hamas explicitly to recognize Israel.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

If the Saudis are split on the question of reconciliation with Iran, they are hiding it very<\/em> well.<\/p>\n

Speculation<\/a> at The Washington Note had earlier focused on Prince Bandar as the figure most likely to back a more aggressive, Cheney-backed Saudi posture in the region.<\/p>\n

\n

Rihab Massoud [is]… a close aide of Prince Bandar who served as Charge \td’Affaires in the Saudi Embassy in Washington during Bandar’s tenure and \tfrequent absences and who — while formally a Foreign Ministry official — \tis now on leave to serve as Bandar’s “No. 2” in his National Security \tAdvisor office…<\/p>\n

While reports of how far Bandar has gone in supporting Cheney’s desire \tfor military action vary, insiders report that Bandar has “essentially \tassured” the Vice President that Saudi Arabia could be moved to accept and \tpossibly support American military action against Iran. Another source \treports… that Bandar himself strongly supports Cheney’s views of a \tmilitary response to Iran.<\/p>\n

This is the core of the deep divide between Prince Turki and Bandar — which \tis also a divide between Foreign Minister Saud and Bandar as well.<\/p>\n

The tension is about Iran and how to contain Iran. While Bandar and Rihab \tMassoud allegedly have affirmed Cheney’s views and are perceived to be Bush \tadministration sycophants, Turki was charting a more realist course for \tSaudi interests and advising the White House to develop more serious, \tconstructive strategies toward the region…<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Bandar’s role is also being celebrated in some Israeli quarters<\/a>, although these reports depict Bandar as more dove than hawk:<\/p>\n

\n

The key figure in Middle Eastern diplomacy is Prince \tBandar bin Sultan, the Saudi Arabian National Security Adviser. Bandar is \tthe man behind the Mecca agreement between Fatah and Hamas for the \testablishment of a Palestinian unity government. He was also active in \tcalming the rival parties in Lebanon, and has tried to mediate between Iran \tand the U.S. administration…<\/span><\/p>\n

There are many indications that the prince, who served \t22 years as Saudi ambassador to Washington, is behind the quiet slide his \tcountry is making toward Israel since the end of the second Lebanon war. In \tSeptember, Bandar met with Olmert in Jordan. The secret meeting was made \tpublic in Israel later.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

And yet…<\/span><\/p>\n

The Cheney faction will not simply disappear.<\/span><\/p>\n

Iraq may provide the key for Cheney’s revival of Sunni-Shiite tensions. The US appears to embrace a more pronounced tilt toward the Iraqi Shia<\/a>. The Arab League is barely able to contain its hostility<\/a> toward the Shiite government in Iraq.<\/span><\/p>\n

The “crackdown” on Sadr city looks very careful<\/a><\/em>. The US-backed “Shiite Option<\/a>” in Iraq seems to have legs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Iraq has always been the core of the US attempt to drive a wedge between the Persian Gulf and the Arab Gulf. It looks set to remain so for the foreseeable future.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Among market watchers, the cover of Time magazine is sometimes viewed as a contrary indicator. By the time any trend reaches the cover, the moment has often passed. So when Time recently ran a cover about Sunni-Shiite tensions–“Why They Hate Each Other“–my immediate reaction was to predict peace in our time. Right on cue, Saudi […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6,3,10,11,8],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=253"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=253"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=253"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=253"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}