{"id":264,"date":"2007-03-23T10:53:34","date_gmt":"2007-03-23T15:53:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=264"},"modified":"2007-03-23T10:53:34","modified_gmt":"2007-03-23T15:53:34","slug":"abdullahs-chance-and-his-critics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=264","title":{"rendered":"Abdullah’s Chance and His Critics"},"content":{"rendered":"
Saudi King Abdullah is making ne<\/title>Saudi King Abdullah is making news with a proposal to revive his 2002 “peace plan” at an <a href=\"http:\/\/www.menafn.com\/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093147121\">Arab League summit set to begin Riyadh on March 28<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In Thomas Friedman’s latest <em>New York Times <\/em>column, “<a href=\"http:\/\/select.nytimes.com\/2007\/03\/23\/opinion\/23friedman.html?n=Top\/Opinion\/Editorials%20and%20Op-Ed\/Op-Ed\/Columnists\">Abdullah’s Chance<\/a>,” he wonders aloud whether Saudi Arabia is becoming “the new Egypt.”<\/p>\n<p>Friedman is understandably delighted by the news.\u00c2\u00a0 After all, Friedman had a hand in the 2002 peace plan.\u00c2\u00a0 At a minimum, he broke the story in his 2002 column, “<a href=\"http:\/\/www.saudiembassy.net\/2002News\/Statements\/StateDetail.asp?cIndex=136\">An Intriguing Signal From the Saudi Crown Prince<\/a>.”\u00c2\u00a0 But, as Friedman immodestly suggested in a radio interview on Tom Ashbrook’s NPR program, “<a href=\"http:\/\/www.onpointradio.org\/shows\/2007\/01\/20070118_a_main.asp\">On Point<\/a>,” he deserves even more credit:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>“I’m the guy who, you know, came up with the Abdullah peace plan in an \tinterview with the King of Saudi Arabia” (19:40).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>As the initiative comes back into focus, it might be worth situating the place of this scheme within the context of ongoing factional battles in Washington, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.<\/p>\n<p>The Abdullah peace plan is properly understood as a diplomatic centerpiece for an “axis” that includes James Baker’s “<a href=\"http:\/\/www.zmag.org\/content\/showarticle.cfm?ItemID=10185\">Right Arabists<\/a>” in Washington, the <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=215\">“Faisal” faction<\/a> in Riyadh, and the center-right Kadima crowd in Tel Aviv.<\/p>\n<p>Likely critics of such a plan might include a “rejectionist” axis, led by <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=56\">Vice President Cheney<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=227\">his “Right Zionist” allies<\/a> in Washington, the old “Fahd” faction–including Prince Bandar–in Riyadh, and the Likud party in Tel Aviv.<\/p>\n<p>As <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nysun.com\/pf.php?id=51008\">Eli Lake reports<\/a> in the Right Zionist <em>New York Sun, <\/em>Likudniks are already speaking out:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>While that appears to be the view of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, other \tplayers within the government have been critical of Mr. Olmert’s seeming \tembrace of the Saudi initiative. In an interview yesterday with the Arutz \tSheva news service, a leading Likud member of the Knesset, Yuval Steinitz, \tattacked the prime minister. “When you mention the other side’s plan and add \t\u00e2\u20ac\u02dcall is open for negotiation,’ it means that you are not going to stand firm \ton defensible borders in the Golan Heights or in Judea and Samaria,” he \tsaid.<\/p>\n<p>A former Israeli ambassador to the United Nations under Prime Minister \tNetanyahu, Dore Gold, said: “Those who believe that redividing Jerusalem by \tadvancing the Saudi plan will lower the flames of radical Islamic rage have \tabsolutely no idea of what they are dealing with. Any proposal to give the \tHamas government the hope of taking over Jerusalem will shoot up jihadism in \tthe region by giving new hope to Al Qaeda affiliates that Jerusalem is \twithin their grasp.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The factional “shoe” has yet to drop in Washington.\u00c2\u00a0 But it will.\u00c2\u00a0 For all the talk of “<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2007\/03\/21\/washington\/21hawks.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&pagewanted=all\">departing hawks<\/a>,” Secretary of State Rice is not out of the factional woods just yet.<\/p>\n<p>No word yet from Riyadh, but maybe it would be useful to recall a little-noticed source of <em>vehement<\/em> dissent that arose when the “Abdullah plan” was first aired back in 2002.<\/p>\n<p>Remember that famous Saudi “hawk”–Nawaf Obaidi–who <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=230\">made news with a <em> Washington Post<\/em> essay<\/a> that threatened dramatic Saudi action to thwart Iranian regional ambitions?\u00c2\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=261\">In a recent post<\/a>, I speculated that there might be reasons to link Obaidi to the Bandar crowd.<\/p>\n<p>If so, then it might make sense to recall an extraordinary earlier Op-Ed by Nawaf Obaidi–”<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/pqasb.pqarchiver.com\/washingtonpost\/access\/109992413.html?dids=109992413:109992413&FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&date=Mar+2,+2002&author=Nawaf+Obaid&pub=The+Washington+Post&edition=&startpage=A.23&desc=The+Israeli+Flag+in+Riyadh?\"> The Israeli Flag in Riyadh?<\/a>“–published in the <em>Washington Post <\/em>on March 2, 2002.<\/p>\n<p>Considering the hushed tones of Saudi factionalism, this essay reads like a sweeping broadside against the man who would soon become King!<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Will there be an Israeli Embassy next door to the Saudi royal court? Not \tany time soon.<\/p>\n<p>The recent announcement by Crown Prince Abdullah that Saudi Arabia would \trecognize Israel if it returned to the 1967 borders… reveals the courage \tand vision of the Saudi leader.\u00c2\u00a0 However, <strong>to assume that the Saudi \tcrown prince can dictate such an important policy is to gravely \tmisunderstand the situation on the ground<\/strong>. In the Saudi kingdom, \tconsensus is the coin of the realm, and in this case, consensus is going to \tbe extremely difficult to come by.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Saudi Arabia has never been a one-man show<\/strong>, although pundits and \tpolicymakers in the West often paint it as a monolithic state. Through \tnearly a century of existence, leadership has been exercised by balancing \tthe various centers of power in the kingdom: the senior Saudi princes, \treligious leaders and the public. <strong>No one institution has the authority<\/strong> \tto implement a policy as important as recognizing Israel…<\/p>\n<p>Even if Crown Prince Abdullah is able to gain the support of a majority \tof the senior leadership of the royal family, <strong>opposition among the \treligious establishment and on the street is deep-seated and adamant<\/strong>. \tSince the announcement, reaction in the kingdom has wavered between \tastonishment and dismay…<\/p>\n<p><strong>Disgruntled religious extremists<\/strong> have a history of violence in the \tkingdom, and their <strong>ranks will only grow if the leadership is seen as \tabandoning long-held Saudi values<\/strong>. Thus, the royal family will be \textremely careful about adopting any policy that widens the gap between \tthemselves and their people…<\/p>\n<p>For this reason, it is <strong>worth considering the wisdom<\/strong> of the manner \tin which this proposal was presented… Announcing it over dinner, without \tany details and to a journalist who is a longtime Saudi critic, only \tundermined any chance for broad-based Saudi and Arab consensus.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>There are lots of flattering words thrown in along the way, but this certainly reads like a shot across the bow.<\/p>\n<p>Does this mean that a possible Obaidi-Bandar faction in Riyadh is actually <em> more<\/em> hostile to Israel than the Abdullah faction?\u00c2\u00a0 No.\u00c2\u00a0 Absolutely not.<\/p>\n<p>But it does mean that such a faction likely remains mistrustful of Adbullah’s “one-man show” and that they–along with their rejectionist allies in Washington and Tel Aviv–have a very different vision of the roadmap to a “new” Middle East.<\/p>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Saudi King Abdullah is making neSaudi King Abdullah is making news with a proposal to revive his 2002 “peace plan” at an Arab League summit set to begin Riyadh on March 28. In Thomas Friedman’s latest New York Times column, “Abdullah’s Chance,” he wonders aloud whether Saudi Arabia is becoming “the new Egypt.” Friedman is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[29,9,10,11,8],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/264"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=264"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/264\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=264"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=264"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=264"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}