{"id":273,"date":"2007-04-11T09:32:14","date_gmt":"2007-04-11T14:32:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=273"},"modified":"2007-04-11T09:32:14","modified_gmt":"2007-04-11T14:32:14","slug":"iranian-quid-pro-quo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=273","title":{"rendered":"Iranian Quid Pro Quo?"},"content":{"rendered":"
Let<\/title>Let’s revisit the old question of Cheney–his influence and his agenda.<\/p>\n<p>There has been speculation, most recently <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=258\">in early March<\/a>, that Cheney might be losing his influence in the White House.<\/p>\n<p>At least some folks in Washington think that may be so much wishful thinking.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/article\/2007\/04\/10\/AR2007041001776_pf.html\"> Peter Baker and Thomas Ricks report<\/a> in the <em>Washington Post<\/em> that someone in the White House is looking to find a powerful successor to <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=140\">Meghan O’Sullivan<\/a>, the Richard Haass prot\u00c3\u00a9g\u00c3\u00a9 who has been the lead White House staffer responsible for Iraq and Afghanistan.<\/p>\n<p>Marine Gen. John J. “Jack” Sheehan was one of those invited to consider the White House “war czar” position and his public response to that invitation speaks directly to the question of Cheney’s influence.\u00c2\u00a0 The <em>Post<\/em> quotes Sheehan:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>“The very fundamental issue is, they don’t know where the hell they’re \tgoing,” said retired Marine Gen. John J. “Jack” Sheehan, a former top NATO \tcommander who was among those rejecting the job. <strong>Sheehan said he believes \tthat Vice President Cheney and his hawkish allies remain more powerful \twithin the administration than pragmatists looking for a way out of Iraq<\/strong>. \t“So rather than go over there, develop an ulcer and eventually leave, I \tsaid, ‘No, thanks,’ ” he said….<\/p>\n<p>In the course of the discussions, <strong>Sheehan<\/strong> said, he <strong>called \taround to get a better feel for the administration landscape<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>“<strong>There’s the residue of the Cheney view<\/strong> — ‘We’re going to win, \tal-Qaeda’s there’ — that justifies anything we did,” he said. “<strong>And then \tthere’s the pragmatist view<\/strong> — how the hell do we get out of Dodge and \tsurvive? <strong>Unfortunately, the people with the former view are still in the \tpositions of most influence<\/strong>.” Sheehan said he wrote a note March 27 \tdeclining interest.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>And then there is Cheney and US relations with Iran.<\/p>\n<p>On the one hand, Iran hawks like John Bolton have criticized the UK–and the US–for handing Iranian hardliners a victory in the recent “hostage” affair.\u00c2\u00a0 Writing in the <em>Financial Times<\/em>, Bolton declares:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span id=\"U1811255167889Q\">M<\/span>ahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, an improbable \tEaster bunny, scored a political victory, both in Iran and internationally, \tby his \u00e2\u20ac\u0153gift\u00e2\u20ac\u009d of the return of Britain\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s 15 hostages. Against all odds, Iran \temerged with a win-win from the crisis: winning by its provocation in \tseizing the hostages in the first place and winning again by its unilateral \tdecision to release them….<\/p>\n<p>Tony Blair, the prime minister, said he was \u00e2\u20ac\u0153not negotiating but not \tconfronting either\u00e2\u20ac\u009d… [W]hat does \u00e2\u20ac\u0153not negotiating but not confronting\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \tactually mean? Unnamed British diplomats briefed the press that they had \tengaged in \u00e2\u20ac\u0153discussions\u00e2\u20ac\u009d but not negotiations. One can only await with \tinterest to learn what that distinction without a difference implies…. the \tUS was silent, at Britain\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s behest.<\/p>\n<p>The Captain Ahabs of British and US diplomacy, obsessed by their search \tfor Iranian \u00e2\u20ac\u0153moderates\u00e2\u20ac\u009d, those great white whales, are proclaiming yet \tanother \u00e2\u20ac\u0153moderate\u00e2\u20ac\u009d victory in this outcome…<\/p>\n<p>Indisputably the winners in Iran were the hardliners.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>When Bolton proposes that there might, as yet, be more “to learn” about the nature of the discussions between the British and Iran he is referring to the widely circulating rumor that there was a <em>quid pro quo<\/em> involved in the hostage release.<\/p>\n<p>Specifically, there has been speculation linking the capture <em>and<\/em> release of the British “hostages” to the capture of several Iranian “hostages”–the so-called <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=229\"> Irbil Five<\/a>–in Iraq.<\/p>\n<p>On the Left, <a href=\"http:\/\/news.independent.co.uk\/world\/middle_east\/article2414760.ece\"> Patrick Cockburn suggested<\/a> that the Iranians seized the British in retaliation for the American capture of the Iranians.<\/p>\n<p>During the “negotiations,” an <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/31997218-e213-11db-af9e-000b5df10621.html\"> Iranian diplomat held in Iraq was released<\/a>, feeding speculation of dealmaking.<\/p>\n<p>The Iranians <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/ba6e7bb2-e4a5-11db-9115-000b5df10621.html\"> hinted at a deal<\/a> after the British were released:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Tehran has called on London to respond to its release of 15 UK naval \tpersonnel with a gesture of good will, indicating it wants Britain’s help to \tfree five Iranians held in Iraq and ease concerns about its nuclear \tprogramme.<\/p>\n<p>“We played our part and we showed our good will,” Rasoul Movahedian, \tIran’s ambassador to the UK, told the Financial Times, in his first \tinterview since the crisis began. “Now it is up to the British government to \tproceed in a positive way.”<\/p>\n<p>There has been speculation that Tehran’s decision to free the 15 was \tlinked to the fate of the Iranians held by the US since January.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>This sparked fear among Iran hawks on the Right that the Bush administration had agreed to the link in a scandalous <em> <a href=\"http:\/\/corner.nationalreview.com\/post\/?q=NTA1Nzc2NTI4ODQ3NjBkNTVjYjlkYThlOTkxMWVkMTM=\"> quid pro quo<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Eli Lake at the <em>New York Sun<\/em> reported, “<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nysun.com\/article\/51945\">America May Free Iranians Taken in Iraq<\/a>” and the editorial page <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nysun.com\/article\/51874\">decried signs of a deal<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Where is Cheney?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In an <a href=\"http:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/news\/releases\/2007\/04\/print\/text\/20070404-3.html\"> interview with ABC News Radio<\/a>, Cheney was asked about a <em>quid pro quo<\/em>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Q Do you think there was any quid pro quo for their release?<\/p>\n<p>THE VICE PRESIDENT: I don’t know.<\/p>\n<p>Q Do you think there should have been?<\/p>\n<p>THE VICE PRESIDENT: No, I don’t think there should have been…<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>At first glance, the whole hostage affair seems to represent a loss for Cheney.<\/p>\n<p>And he may, indeed, agree with Bolton that the whole deal was a victory for Iranian hardliners.<\/p>\n<p>It is also possible, however, that Cheney is not quite finished.<\/p>\n<p>The British have been release.\u00c2\u00a0 But the Iranian “Irbil Five”?<\/p>\n<p>No sign of them.\u00c2\u00a0 At least not yet.\u00c2\u00a0 And, according to the<em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/be94d6ce-e7c9-11db-8098-000b5df10621.html\"> Financial Times<\/a> <\/em>the Iranians are pissed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Iran’s frustration has been gradually building over the lack of progress \tin releasing five Iranians seized by US forces from Tehran’s consular \tbuilding in Arbil, northern Iraq, on January 11. The case has become for \tIran a disturbing sign of hostile US intentions, both over Tehran’s role in \tIraq and its nuclear programme…<\/p>\n<p>“We are not responsible for [the detained Iranians],” one Iraqi source \tsaid. “The <em>realpolitik<\/em> of today’s Iraq is different and [the \tIranians] know it for sure.”…<\/p>\n<p>Iran’s hopes for the release of the “Arbil Five” blossomed last week both \twith the freeing of Jalal Sharafi, a senior Iranian diplomat, two months \tafter he was kidnapped in Baghdad apparently by Iraqi special forces, and \twith Iran’s release of 15 British sailors and marines detained since March \t23.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Is it possible that those are Cheney fingerprints on “the <em>realpolitik<\/em> of today’s Iraq”?<\/p>\n<p>In addition to questions of influence, there remains the issue of <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=263\">Cheney’s <em>goals<\/em><\/a> regarding Iran.<\/p>\n<p>I note with interest that some of Cheney’s Right Zionist allies continue to be <em>very frustrated<\/em> by US policy toward Iran.\u00c2\u00a0 Right Zionists have always thought of<em> <\/em>populist regime change as the top priority in Iran.\u00c2\u00a0 But Cheney’s potential influence appears to offer little hope to Right Zionists that US policy is moving decisively in this direction.<\/p>\n<p>In <a href=\"http:\/\/www.foreignpolicy.com\/story\/cms.php?story_id=3766&print=1\"> a recent interview<\/a>, Richard Perle seems nearly inconsolable:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>It astonishes me that we have no political strategy that entails working \twith the opposition and that reflects how unpopular the theocracy is. It\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s a \tcomplete failure of imagination. We had such a strategy with Franco\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Spain, \twith Salazar\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Portugal, with Marcos\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Philippines, with Milosevic\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s \tYugoslavia, and with Poland during Solidarity. In Iran you have mullahs who \tare acting in a political capacity\u00e2\u20ac\u201dwho basically rule by force, with the \tbacking of the Basij\u00e2\u20ac\u201dand they ought to receive a political challenge. There \tare clerics in Iran, such as Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who \tdon\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t like the theocracy. And there are lots of indications that a majority \tof the Iranian people, and certainly the overwhelming majority of young \tIranians, identify with Western concepts of government… There is plenty of \tscope for a political strategy in Iran, and I think the Iranian mullahs fear \tit. They must wake up everyday saying to themselves, \u00e2\u20ac\u0153I can\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t understand why \tthese Americans haven\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t done anything to use our unpopularity against us.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \tThey must be as puzzled as I am.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>If Cheney is preparing the way for a “political strategy” of populist regime change in Iran, he appears to be keeping it from some of his best friends.<\/p>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>LetLet’s revisit the old question of Cheney–his influence and his agenda. There has been speculation, most recently in early March, that Cheney might be losing his influence in the White House. At least some folks in Washington think that may be so much wishful thinking. Peter Baker and Thomas Ricks report in the Washington Post […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6,11],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=273"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=273"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=273"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=273"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}