{"id":291,"date":"2007-05-15T08:46:16","date_gmt":"2007-05-15T13:46:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=291"},"modified":"2007-05-15T12:03:41","modified_gmt":"2007-05-15T17:03:41","slug":"putins-caspian-coup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=291","title":{"rendered":"Putin&#8217;s Caspian Coup, Cheney&#8217;s Iran Plan"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><meta http-equiv=\"Content-Language\" content=\"en-us\" \/> <meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=windows-1252\" \/><title>In a major coup<\/title>In a major coup, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/72900890-01b7-11dc-8b8c-000b5df10621.html\"> Russian President Putin has clinched a deal<\/a> to export Central Asian gas via  Russia&#8217;s preferred overland route and has almost certainly dealt a fatal blow to  Vice President Cheney&#8217;s vision of a submerged Trans-Caspian pipeline that would  bypass Russia.<\/p>\n<p>Putin claimed his Great Game prize at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.boston.com\/news\/world\/asia\/articles\/2007\/05\/12\/russia_central_asia_in_crucial_gas_deal\/?page=full\"> a weekend meeting<\/a> with Turkmenistan President Gurbanguli Berdymukhamedov and  Kazakhstan Presdient Nursultan Nazarbayev.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2006\/05\/06\/world\/europe\/06cheney.html?ei=5088&#038;en=cac41c94b5ce915b&#038;ex=1304568000&#038;partner=rssnyt&#038;emc=rss&#038;pagewanted=all\"> Cheney had personally courted Kazakh President Nazarbayev<\/a> in a bid to win  support for the Trans-Caspian pipeline.\u00c2\u00a0 And the US had made <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=239\">similar overtures<\/a> to  Turkmenistan President Gurbanguli Berdymukhamedov after the <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=214\">sudden death of his  predecessor<\/a>, Saparmurat Niyazov, in December 2006.<\/p>\n<p>Kazakh President Nazarbayev <a href=\"http:\/\/en.rian.ru\/world\/20070511\/65285602.html\">had been slated to  attend<\/a> an energy summit of ex-Soviet bloc leaders meeting in Poland to  discuss pipeline projects designed to bypass Russia.<\/p>\n<p>Instead of bypassing Russia, Nazarbayev bypassed Cheney.<\/p>\n<p>This is an enormous victory for Putin in the increasingly intense Great Power  rivalry between Russia and the United States.<\/p>\n<p>Turkmen President Berdymukhamedov, seemingly eager to forestall an inevitable  US-led <a href=\"http:\/\/www.csmonitor.com\/2007\/0515\/p07s01-wosc.htm\">smear  campaign<\/a> against his authoritarian regime, has <a href=\"http:\/\/www.forbes.com\/markets\/feeds\/afx\/2007\/05\/14\/afx3716415.html\"> held out hope<\/a> that the Russian pipeline agreement does not preclude  alternatives, including the Trans-Caspian pipeline:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Turkmen ambassador to Austria Esen Aydogdyev told the Viennese daily Der  \tStandard that &#8216;Turkmenistan has enough gas to export it in all directions;  \tthe project involving a trans-Caspian pipeline remains an option. The West  \tdoesn&#8217;t need to have any worries.&#8217;<\/p>\n<p>Austrian oil and gas company OMV AG plays a leading role in the  \tconsortium currently planning the Nabucco natural gas pipeline and recently  \tconfirmed its commitment to the project.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Nevertheless, officials in the US and Russia appear to read the situation  differently.<\/p>\n<p>Russian Industry and Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko, clearly gloating, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.interfax.com\/3\/270422\/news.aspx\">suggested<\/a> that Cheney&#8217;s  pipeline is now dead:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;In my view, technological, legal, and environmental risks that are  \tinvolved in the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project make it impossible to  \tfind an investor for it, unless it is viewed as a purely political project  \tand unless it does not matter what this pipe will pump,&#8221; Khristenko told  \tjournalists in Turkmenbashi on Saturday.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Khristenko&#8217;s American counterpart, US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/aspxcontent\/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20070514\\ACQDJON200705140711DOWJONESDJONLINE000149.htm&#038;\"> appears to view the outcome as a significant setback<\/a> for US efforts to help  break European dependence on Russia.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said Monday that a deal to pipe gas  \tfrom Turkmenistan to customers in the West via Russia was bad for Europe.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking at a press conference on the sidelines of an International Energy  \tAgency meeting here, Bodman said: &#8220;It would not be good for Europe. It  \tconcentrates more natural gas to one supplier.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Implications for Iran<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Putin&#8217;s Caspian delight may have significant implications for US policy  toward Iran.\u00c2\u00a0 Cheney had been hoping to use the Trans-Caspian Pipeline,  along with the Baku-Tiblis-Ceyhan oil and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum gas pipelines, to <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=257\">bypass Iran and Russia<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0  The gas would eventually flow to Europe through the <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=286\">NABUCCO<\/a> pipeline.<\/p>\n<p>Now, Cheney will arguably be forced to choose between &#8220;the lesser of two  evils.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>From the perspective of Great Power politics, there is no question: Cheney  will try to reconstruct an alliance with Iran.<\/p>\n<p>The only question now may be <em>how<\/em> Cheney will rebuild ties between the  US and Iran: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.guardian.co.uk\/worldlatest\/story\/0,,-6634215,00.html\"> diplomacy<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=290\">regime  change<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 For the vice president, mere &#8220;containment&#8221; of Iran is no  longer an option.\u00c2\u00a0 Cheney will not be likely leave office without an  alliance with Iran.<\/p>\n<p>One challenge, among several, is to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.iranmania.com\/News\/ArticleView\/Default.asp?NewsCode=51621&#038;NewsKind=Current%20Affairs\"> pry Iran away from Russia<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Several weeks before the news of Putin&#8217;s Caspian coup, Nikolas K. Gvosdev&#8211;a <a href=\"http:\/\/washingtonrealist.blogspot.com\/\">self-proclaimed Washington  &#8220;realist&#8221;<\/a>&#8211;published an article in the<em> National Interest<\/em> entitled, &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalinterest.org\/Article.aspx?id=14180\">The  Other Iran Timetable<\/a>.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Gvosdev argued that Europe needed Iranian gas for the NABUCCO pipeline:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>[T]here is only so much time before Europeans will decide that Iran,  \twhich has the world\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s second largest reserves of natural gas, is a critical  \tpart of ensuring their energy security. So far, the United States has been  \tlargely successful in convincing Europeans to delay proposed investments in  \tIran\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s natural gas sector and has expressed strong disapproval of plans to  \tconnect Iran to the so-called NABUCCO pipeline (designed to bring Caspian  \tgas via Turkey to Europe).<\/p>\n<p>But NABUCCO has limits. Many Europeans are skeptical that there is enough  \tCaspian gas to really make a difference for their consumption&#8230; In the end,  \tI was told, for NABUCCO to make sense, it will have to include gas from  \tIran.<\/p>\n<p>This means that sooner or later Europe\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s ability to give Washington support  \ton isolating Iran will give way to its own needs for energy&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>[W]as this is a case of advising, &#8220;Whatever you do, do it  \tquickly&#8221;\u00e2\u20ac\u201dmeaning that if the United States were to pursue forcible regime  \tchange the preference would be to do it sooner?&#8230; [B]y 2011 or 2013,  \tlarge-scale European investment in Iran will begin no matter whether it is  \tstill the Islamic Republic or some other form of government&#8230;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Right Zionists like Michael Ledeen were once <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=278\">champions of engagement  with Iran<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 That idea seems to have collapsed after 1991.<\/p>\n<p>During the middle of the 1990s, Cheney was himself a leading petro-realist, <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=263\">advocating direct  engagement with Iran<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 That idea <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=157\">seems to have collapsed by  July 2001<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Will Cheney and <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=198\">the  Russia hawks<\/a> go <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=262\">wobbly  on Iran<\/a> now that the US appears to have lost Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan?<\/p>\n<p>Will Right Zionists revert to their earlier support for an opening with Iran?\u00c2\u00a0  Or is <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=276\">Russia the &#8220;lesser  of two evils&#8221;<\/a> for Right Zionists, especially in light of <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=214\">Israeli interests in  Turkmenistan<\/a> and Iranian support for Hezbollah and Hamas?<\/p>\n<p>Or, will Cheney and Right Zionists constitute a united front toward regime  change in Iran?<\/p>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a major coupIn a major coup, Russian President Putin has clinched a deal to export Central Asian gas via Russia&#8217;s preferred overland route and has almost certainly dealt a fatal blow to Vice President Cheney&#8217;s vision of a submerged Trans-Caspian pipeline that would bypass Russia. Putin claimed his Great Game prize at a weekend [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[25,6,9,28,11,23,24],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/291"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=291"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/291\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}