{"id":295,"date":"2007-05-22T09:29:55","date_gmt":"2007-05-22T14:29:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=295"},"modified":"2007-05-22T09:29:55","modified_gmt":"2007-05-22T14:29:55","slug":"cheneys-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=295","title":{"rendered":"Cheney&#8217;s Iran?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><meta http-equiv=\"Content-Language\" content=\"en-us\" \/> <meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=windows-1252\" \/><title>Is the US preparing the way for<\/title>Is the US preparing the way for a decisive pro-Shiite <em>alliance<\/em> with  both the Iraqi Shiites and the incumbent Iranian regime?\u00c2\u00a0 Or is it  preparing the way for a confrontation with Iran?<\/p>\n<p>By some accounts, Iraqi Shiites are currently facilitating a diplomatic  opening between the US and Iran.<\/p>\n<p><em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.stratfor.com\/products\/premium\/read_article.php?id=288955\"> Stratfor<\/a><\/em> offers the following interpretation of recent events:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Iraq&#8217;s most senior Shiite politician, Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, was in Iran on  \tMay 21 to undergo medical treatment after being rushed to the United States  \tfor testing a few days earlier. But it is unlikely that his trip is actually  \thealth-related; rather, al-Hakim flew to Iran from the United States to  \tdeliver the U.S. response to Tehran&#8217;s proposed framework for negotiations at  \tthe first direct public U.S.-Iranian meeting over Iraq, to be held in  \tBaghdad on May 28&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>When Iran relayed its terms for the talks, it did so by having an Iranian  \tofficial hand-deliver the proposal to U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker;  \tthis took place during a three-minute meeting on the sidelines of the May 4  \tinternational conference on Iraq in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. A version of  \tthat report was also leaked to a Saudi paper in an attempt to placate the  \tArab states (especially Saudi Arabia) that are wary of any U.S.-Iranian  \taccommodation on Iraq. Because of the sensitive nature of U.S.-Iranian  \tcommunications, the Bush administration chose to use al-Hakim as a conduit  \tfor transmitting its response.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The US-Iranian dialogue is, as noted by <em>Stratfor<\/em>, &#8220;sensitive&#8221; because  Sunni Arab forces are wary of a US &#8220;tilt&#8221; toward a Shia Gulf.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, Sunni Arab suspicions seem to grow more pronounced with each passing  day.<\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.iraqslogger.com\/index.php\/post\/2886\">IraqSlogger<\/a><\/em>  has translated a recent interview with Saleh al-Mutlak, previously celebrated by <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=63\">Secretary of State Rice<\/a>  for taking positions that represented &#8220;considerable maturing of the Sunni  political leadership.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Mutlak seems to fear the US and Iran are already <em>de facto<\/em> allies in  Iraq:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>In general, US policy towards Iran is vague, and unclear, and there are  \tthose who believe that the controversy is agreed upon, and is <strong>not a real  \tcontroversy<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>And in the result that the goals that Iran seeks in Iraq, they are the <strong> \tsame goals<\/strong> that America seeks. Iran wants a weak Iraq, and fragmented to  \ta certain extent, and this is an American goal. And whether there is  \tcoordination on this matter or not, <strong>they are walking on the same path and  \t(towards the same) goal<\/strong>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>At the same time, Mutlak is critical of Sunni Arab neighbors for abandoning  Sunni Arab Iraq to Iranian political dominance.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Unfortunately, the Arab countries, and at the forefront of them the  \tneighboring countries are remiss with regards to Iraq, as they, at least  \thave even not moved to stop the Iranian interference in Iraqi affairs.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>All of this suggests that the US is, indeed, tilting toward a Shia Gulf.<\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, it is unclear whether the Bush administration is united in its  policies toward Iran.<\/p>\n<p>According to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.guardian.co.uk\/iran\/story\/0,,2085193,00.html\">a report by  Simon Tisdall in the <em>Guardian<\/em><\/a>, some US officials&#8211;all anonymous&#8211;are  still speaking in <em>very<\/em> hawkish terms about Iran and its role in Iraq.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\n&#8220;Iran is fighting a proxy war in Iraq and it&#8217;s a very dangerous course for  \tthem to be following. They are already committing daily acts of war against  \tUS and British forces,&#8221; a senior US official in Baghdad warned. &#8220;They [Iran]  \tare behind a lot of high-profile attacks meant to undermine US will and  \tBritish will, such as the rocket attacks on Basra palace and the Green Zone  \t[in Baghdad]. The attacks are directed by the Revolutionary Guard who are  \tconnected right to the top [of the Iranian government].&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>So, who are the remaining Iran hawks?<\/p>\n<p>Right Zionists like Richard Perle <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nysun.com\/article\/54448\">remain quite hawkish about Iran<\/a>  and are very hostile toward dialogue with the Iranian regime, but do they have  friends in the administration calling the shots on Iraq and Iran?<\/p>\n<p>Cheney is the most likely ally, but he appears to be supporting the  diplomatic discussions with Iran.<\/p>\n<p>He recently <a href=\"http:\/\/cf.us.biz.yahoo.com\/bw\/070514\/20070514006424.html?.v=1\"> explained his position to reporters<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>QUESTION: Is it possible to both have a hard line on Iran, as you did on  \tthe aircraft carrier, and talk with them about Iraq? But are you still both  \tgoing in different directions?<\/p>\n<p>THE VICE PRESIDENT: They&#8217;re separate issues. The President made clear the  \tconversations in Baghdad are between ambassadors &#8212; focused on the situation  \tin Iraq and what we believe is Iran&#8217;s interference in the internal affairs  \tof Iraq.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Not exactly the warmest words of greeting, but neither is it a critique of  the diplomatic opening.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, Robin Wright at the <em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/article\/2007\/05\/18\/AR2007051801990.html\"> Washington Post<\/a><\/em> suggests that Cheney has been instrumental in  facilitating the &#8220;medical care&#8221; for al-Hakim that has taken him to the US and  Iran.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Vice President Cheney played a role in arranging for Hakim to see U.S.  \tmilitary doctors in Baghdad, who made the original diagnosis, and for the  \tcurrent medical treatment in Houston, the sources said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>If Cheney is facilitating dialogue between the US and Iran, then who is busy  screaming about Iran to Simon Tisdall at the <em>Guardian<\/em>?<\/p>\n<p>There are, of course, Right Arabist Iran hawks from the worlds of diplomacy  (i.e., <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=90\">James Akins and his  Iran Policy Committee<\/a>) and within the military brass (i.e., <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=289\">Zinni<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=158\">others<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.newamerica.net\/pressroom\/2007\/new_york_sun_quotes_steven_clemons_on_president_bush_richard_perle\"> Steven Clemons<\/a> suggests that &#8220;Bush is allowing Vice President Cheney and  Secretary of State Rice to play good cop, bad cop with the Iranians.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>So, which cop is bluffing?<\/p>\n<p>Is this the start of a &#8220;beautiful relationship&#8221; between the US and Iran?\u00c2\u00a0  Or is this the prelude to a policy of regime change?<\/p>\n<p>Either way, my bet is that Cheney doesn&#8217;t leave office without trying to go <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=291\">beyond containment<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is the US preparing the way forIs the US preparing the way for a decisive pro-Shiite alliance with both the Iraqi Shiites and the incumbent Iranian regime?\u00c2\u00a0 Or is it preparing the way for a confrontation with Iran? By some accounts, Iraqi Shiites are currently facilitating a diplomatic opening between the US and Iran. Stratfor [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6,3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/295"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=295"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/295\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=295"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=295"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=295"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}