{"id":307,"date":"2007-06-14T12:13:28","date_gmt":"2007-06-14T17:13:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=307"},"modified":"2007-06-14T12:13:28","modified_gmt":"2007-06-14T17:13:28","slug":"the-us-loses-its-civil-war-in-gaza","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=307","title":{"rendered":"The US Loses its Civil War in Gaza"},"content":{"rendered":"
New Page 1<\/title>Back in April, amidst growing tension and factional fighting in Gaza between Fatah and Hamas, I pointed out that the US was, indirectly, <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=280\">a party to the conflict<\/a> insofar as the Bush administration was providing support to Fatah security forces.<\/p>\n<p>At that time, <em>Haaretz<\/em> reported (available via the <em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailytimes.com.pk\/default.asp?page=2007\/05\/21\/story_21-5-2007_pg4_3\"> Daily Times<\/a><\/em> of Pakistan) on disagreements over US and Israeli support for Fatah.\u00c2\u00a0 The disagreement ostensibly concerned differing assessments of the strength of Fatah relative to Hamas.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The Americans believe that strengthening Abbas loyalists and deploying \tthem in friction points along the north of the strip and Philadelphi route \tin Rafah will eventually improve the security situation.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Western officials who studied the battle near the Karni crossing last \tTuesday concluded, contrary to the IDF’s assessment, that Abbas’ forces had \tperformed<\/strong> well despite their losses and had succeeded in warding off a \tlarger Hamas force. They found that Hamas had not won a decisive victory in \tthe battles in the Strip and urged taking steps to strengthen the pro-Abbas \tforces…<\/p>\n<p><strong>[Israeli] Deputy Defence Minister Ephraim Sneh is the main advocate for \thelping to strengthen the Abbas loyalists<\/strong>…<\/p>\n<p><strong>The IDF believes<\/strong> that Hamas has a considerable advantage over Fatah \tin the confrontation with Fatah in the Gaza Strip. “<strong>Hamas men are \ttrained, equipped and more resolved<\/strong> than their Fatah counterparts, even \tif the latter outnumber them in weapons,” an IDF source said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Ephraim Sneh was earlier quoted in the <em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/article\/2007\/05\/17\/AR2007051700419_pf.html\"> Washington Post<\/a><\/em>, defending Israeli support for Fatah:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>“The idea is to change the balance, which has been in favor of Hamas and \tagainst Fatah. With these well-trained forces, it will help right that \timbalance.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Now, Sneh appears to be have suffered a double loss.<\/p>\n<p>Within the Israeli Labor Party, Sneh is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.jpost.com\/servlet\/Satellite?cid=1180527978119&pagename=JPost\/JPArticle\/ShowFull\"> closely aligned<\/a> with the outgoing Defense Minister and party leader, Amir Peretz.\u00c2\u00a0 In the most recent Labor Party primary, <a href=\"http:\/\/english.people.com.cn\/200706\/10\/eng20070610_382690.html\">Peretz backed Ami Ayalon<\/a> who <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/newsOne\/idUSL1210389120070613?src=061307_0805_DOUBLEFEATURE_hamas_on_offensive&sp=true\"> subsequently lost the bid<\/a> for party leadership to Ehud Barak.<\/p>\n<p>Will Ehud Barak endorse Sneh’s dangerous game?<\/p>\n<p>Sneh’s strategy appears to be crumbling.\u00c2\u00a0 Hamas appears to be winning <a href=\"http:\/\/www.guardian.co.uk\/israel\/Story\/0,,2102898,00.html\">decisive victories<\/a> against Sneh’s Fatah allies.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>In fighting today, Hamas continued its near-complete armed takeover of \tthe Gaza Strip and seized the southern town of Rafah, according to witnesses \tand security officials allied with the rival Fatah faction.<\/p>\n<p>In Gaza City, two out of four key Fatah-controlled security compounds have \tfallen to Hamas…<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, Mr Abbas ordered his best troops to strike back at Hamas Islamists \tas they tightened their grip on Gaza.<\/p>\n<p>The decision by Mr Abbas, who is backed by the west, to commit the \tpresidential guard came as Hamas said it captured the Gaza City security \tcompound. Until now the US-financed presidential guard has been told to \tmaintain a defensive posture against what appear to be coordinated attacks \tby Hamas.<\/p>\n<p>Hamas’s seizure of the base would deal a severe blow to Fatah and Mr Abbas…<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The Council on Foreign Relations, among others, is already describing the emergence of “<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cfr.org\/publication\/13584\/hamastan_takes_shape_in_gaza.html?breadcrumb=\/\">Hamastan<\/a>.”<\/p>\n<p>Having helped trigger the confrontation between Fatah and Hamas, Washington is now hoping its go-to-guy in Egypt,<span id=\"intelliTXT\"><span class=\"lead\"> Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman can <a href=\"http:\/\/www.jpost.com\/servlet\/Satellite?cid=1181570258162&pagename=JPost\/JPArticle\/ShowFull\"> persuade Hamas to stand down<\/a>, even as victory appears imminent.\u00c2\u00a0 Good luck with that.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"lead\">As I have previously suggested, the US has tried to exploit civil war in Gaza as part of <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=280\">a proxy war<\/a> between the US and Iran.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"lead\">It is for this reason that Israeli Prime Minister Olmert has suggested that the fall of Gaza to Hamas would have “<a href=\"http:\/\/www.haaretz.com\/hasen\/spages\/870089.html\">regional implications<\/a>.”<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"lead\">The <em>Jerusalem Post<\/em> reports that Cairo is allegedly pointing fingers at Iran.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span class=\"lead\">According to the report, Cairo blamed external \telements with igniting the fighting, hinting that Iran was behind the \tescalation in Gaza…<\/p>\n<p>In an interview with the London based Al-Hayat , senior Fatah official Samir \tMashharawi was more explicit in his claims that both Syria and Iran were \tbehind Hamas’ attempted coup. In the interview, cited by Israel Radio, \tMashharawi claimed that the two countries had transferred millions of \tDollars to Hamas, and that the Islamic group was using the money against the \tPalestinians people in trying to establish a “Hamas state” in the Gaza \tStrip.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span class=\"lead\">Is Iran rising to the challenge?\u00c2\u00a0 Perhaps.\u00c2\u00a0 Hamas certainly is.\u00c2\u00a0 But it was the US-backed Fatah forces who were first deployed into “<a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailytimes.com.pk\/default.asp?page=2007\/05\/21\/story_21-5-2007_pg4_3\">friction points<\/a>” to try to escalate tensions in Gaza.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"lead\">That is looking increasingly like a major blunder.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>In the battle between Sneh and the IDF, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.haaretz.com\/hasen\/spages\/870827.html\">defense establishment looks like the winner<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The defense establishment is to hold meetings next week in an effort to \tprepare recommendations for a new policy in the Gaza Strip, in the wake of \twhat seems to a Hamas conquest of the area.<\/p>\n<p>The general assessment in the Israel Defense Forces is that there is a new \treality in the Strip and that Hamas has defeated Fatah in the battle for \tpower.<\/p>\n<p>Israeli political sources said Wednesday that the Hamas takeover requires \tthat Israel reexamine its ties with the Gaza Strip, and whether it will \tcontinue its economic ties, the infrastructure links – providing of fuel and \telectricity from Israel.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Sneh’s US-backed plan to use Fatah forces against Hamas may have been a cynical and naive gambit, but the IDF is unlikely to adopt a softer line.<\/p>\n<p>Barak may want to prop up Olmert’s government.\u00c2\u00a0 But a Hamas victory in Gaza will surely bolster the position of Israeli hawks, not least <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=285\">Likud leader Benjamin Netanhahu<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>If so, then the proxy war in Gaza may quickly become a far more explosive <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=294\">regional civil war in the Middle East<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>New Page 1Back in April, amidst growing tension and factional fighting in Gaza between Fatah and Hamas, I pointed out that the US was, indirectly, a party to the conflict insofar as the Bush administration was providing support to Fatah security forces. At that time, Haaretz reported (available via the Daily Times of Pakistan) on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[13,6,9,31],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/307"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=307"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/307\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=307"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=307"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=307"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}