{"id":326,"date":"2007-08-13T10:25:50","date_gmt":"2007-08-13T14:25:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=326"},"modified":"2007-08-13T10:25:50","modified_gmt":"2007-08-13T14:25:50","slug":"cheney-putin-and-the-battle-for-iraqi-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=326","title":{"rendered":"Cheney, Putin, and the Battle for Iraqi Oil"},"content":{"rendered":"
Vice President Cheney allegedly<\/title>Vice President Cheney allegedly continues to beat the drum for war with Iran.\u00c2\u00a0 The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mcclatchydc.com\/227\/story\/18834.html\">McClatchy Washington Bureau<\/a> reported as much last week:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Vice President Dick Cheney several weeks ago proposed launching \tairstrikes at suspected training camps in Iran run by the Quds force, a \tspecial unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to two U.S. \tofficials who are involved in Iran policy.<\/p>\n<p>The Bush administration has launched what appears to be a coordinated \tcampaign to pin more of Iraq’s security troubles on Iran.<\/p>\n<p>Last week, Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, the No. 2 U.S. military commander in \tIraq, said Shiite militiamen had launched 73 percent of the attacks that had \tkilled or wounded American troops in July. U.S. officials think that \tmajority Shiite Iran is providing militiamen with EFPs, which pierce armored \tvehicles and explode once inside.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Cheney and Odierno appear to be particularly close allies.\u00c2\u00a0 Cheney, in his <a href=\"http:\/\/transcripts.cnn.com\/TRANSCRIPTS\/0707\/31\/lkl.01.html\">recent interview with Larry King<\/a>, singled out Odierno for his service:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>General Petraeus is a very impressive officer… I don’t want to put the \twhole burden on him… there are a lot of people working at it, too. <strong> \tGeneral Ray Odierno<\/strong>, who is his number two, <strong>a superb officer<\/strong>. A \tman who spent about 28 months in Iraq himself so far, whose son served and \tlost an arm, who is dedicated — is <strong>just as dedicated as Dave Petraeus<\/strong> \tis to the success of this enterprise.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Perhaps all this anti-Iranian talk risks undermining the Bush administration’s relationship with Shiite-led political figures in Iraq.<\/p>\n<p>But the White House appears to be working hard to maintain the image of a distinction between the Maliki government and the Iranian regime–even if neither Maliki nor the Iranians appear to put much stock in the distinction.\u00c2\u00a0 <em> <a href=\"http:\/\/english.aljazeera.net\/NR\/exeres\/8573C138-9A2B-4F30-A9D9-D8C117F9A6B0.htm\"> Al Jazeera<\/a><\/em> reports:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>When asked whether he thought al-Maliki shared his views on Iran, Bush \tsaid: “So the first thing I looked for was commitment against the \textremists.<\/p>\n<p>“The second thing is ‘does he [al-Maliki] understand with some extremist \tgroups there’s connections with Iran’, and he does. And I’m confident…<\/p>\n<p>“Now, is he trying to get Iran to play a more constructive role? I presume \the is. But that doesn’t – what my question is – well, my message to him is, \tis that when we catch you playing a non-constructive role there will be a \tprice to pay.”<\/p>\n<p><strong>The White House later clarified with Al Jazeera that Bush was referring \tto Iran when talking about a price to pay<\/strong>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>All of which goes to the central question: is Cheney secretly <em>horrified<\/em> by the Maliki government?\u00c2\u00a0 Is there anything to the old assertion from the<em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/world\/africa\/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9475875\"> Economist<\/a> <\/em>that Cheney was “said to favour an alternative Shia leader as prime minister”?<\/p>\n<p>Or <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=323\">does Cheney share the enthusiasm for the Shiite-led Maliki government expressed by Right Zionists like Fouad Ajami and Reuel Marc Gerecht<\/a>?<\/p>\n<p>If there is any reason to believe that the latter is true, it might have something to do with the politics of Iraqi oil.<\/p>\n<p>However closely–and provisionally–aligned Cheney may be to Right Zionists, his most consistent enduring commitments center on Great Power rivalry with Russia.<\/p>\n<p>This has significant implications for US-Russian relations in Europe–i.e., <a href=\"http:\/\/www.neurope.eu\/view_news.php?id=76012\">Kosovo<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/en.rian.ru\/russia\/20070801\/70130819.html\">missile shields<\/a>, etc.–and the Caspian–i.e., <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=291\">Turkmenistan<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.forbes.com\/business\/feeds\/afx\/2007\/08\/09\/afx4002597.html\"> Georgia<\/a>, etc.<\/p>\n<p>But it also may help clarify Cheney’s enthusiasm for the Sistani-backed regime in Iraq.<\/p>\n<p>If the US invasion of Iraq was motivated, in part, by the desire to prevent Russia from winning access to Iraqi oil after the collapse of UN sanctions, then Cheney is being well served by his Shiite friends in Iraq.<\/p>\n<p>I first made that argument in an April 2007 post entitled, “<a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=270\">The US-Russian War in Iraq<\/a>” in which I suggested that the details of the draft hydrocarbons law tended to leave Russian-backed companies–especially Lukoil–out in the cold.<\/p>\n<p>Last week, Sistani-backed oil minister Hussain al-Shahristani confirmed Russian fears.<\/p>\n<p>In meetings with Shahristani, Russia sought to use the promise of debt relief to win better terms for Lukoil.\u00c2\u00a0 According to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.kommersant.com\/p794297\/LUKOIL_Kurna\/\">Kommersant<\/a>, that plan to make debt relief conditional appears to have crumbled:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>It was Iraq’s Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani that announced \tyesterday the results of his Moscow meeting with Russia\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Industry and \tEnergy Minister Viktor Khristenko. According to al-Shahristani, Russia \tconfirmed it would fully execute Paris Club\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s decision to write off the debt \tof Iraq and today\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s concern is ensuring some technical procedures. Writing \toff is conditioned to nothing…<\/p>\n<p>Paris Club raised the issue of writing off $140 billion from Iraq after the \tU.S. invasion of 2003. Russia pressed for conditioning its pardon to \treviving the West Kurna-2 agreement but wasn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t backed up by other creditors. \tSo, the agreement of 2004 spells out writing off 80 percent of amount due to \tParis Club nations….<\/p>\n<p>The agreement on Iraq\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s debt will be inked till this year-end, Deputy \tFinance Minister Sergey Storchak announced not long ago. Hussein al-Shahristani \twas expected to deliberate on the terms of the deal in Moscow, but the \tminister arrived with no authority given to the effect. As a result, Russia \twas forced to confirm adherence to Paris Club commitments without additional \tconditions.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>As noted in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.interfax.ru\/e\/B\/finances\/26.html?id_issue=11832716\">some press reports<\/a>, Shahristani had a few nice words to say about Lukoil:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>“Lukoil has done much in Iraq, has experience of working in our country, \tpossesses vast data about Iraqi oil deposits. These temporary advantages \traise the company’s chances for winning free and transparent oil tenders,” \tthe minister said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>But this sweet talk tended to obscure the real issue of <em>control<\/em> over the enormous West Qurna fields.\u00c2\u00a0 The oil industry journal, <em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.platts.com\/Oil\/News\/8200086.xml?src=Oilrssheadlines1\">Platts<\/a><\/em>, explains:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Shahristani, who spoke at a press conference in Moscow, said Iraqi<br \/>\noilfields currently in operation, including West Qurna, would fall under the<br \/>\ncontrol of the national oil company.<\/p>\n<p>“For the discovered fields where there are no risks involved…we do not<br \/>\nsee any necessity for foreign companies to take control. We think the Iraqi<br \/>\nnational oil company can do it with the cooperation with other oil firms,” \the<br \/>\nsaid.<\/p>\n<p>“All the discovered and producing fields will be assigned to the national<br \/>\noil company, this includes West Qurna,” Shahristani said. “It is up to the<br \/>\nIraqi national oil company to decide how it can develop that field.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>In other words, the West Qurna field will be under the <em>political<\/em> control of the <em>national<\/em> oil company under a Shiite-led, US-backed administration.<\/p>\n<p>The Saddam-era deal had promised Lukoil <em>commercial<\/em> control.\u00c2\u00a0 <em> <a href=\"http:\/\/en.rian.ru\/world\/20070809\/70730164.html\">RIA Novosti<\/a><\/em> reports:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>“Assigning oil fields to the National Oil Company means that the company \twill have the right to choose foreign companies under contract terms,” \tHussain al-Shahristani told a news conference in Moscow….<\/p>\n<p>Under the [Saddam-era] West Qurna deal, LUKoil held 68.5% and Iraq’s SOMO \torganization 25%.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>In other words, Russia can forget about control.<\/p>\n<p>As for the new fields, Shahristani has not ruled out the “necessity for foreign companies to take control.”<\/p>\n<p>Could Cheney have found a better ally in Iraq?<\/p>\n<p>Now, if he can deliver on his <a href=\"http:\/\/today.reuters.com\/misc\/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2007-08-09T145645Z_01_L09866154_RTRIDST_0_RUSSIA-IRAQ-ENERGY-UPDATE-1.XML\"> promise to get the oil legislation passed in September<\/a>, Cheney should be able to sleep soundly…<\/p>\n<p>Even as he allegedly dreams of war with Iran.<\/p>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Vice President Cheney allegedlyVice President Cheney allegedly continues to beat the drum for war with Iran.\u00c2\u00a0 The McClatchy Washington Bureau reported as much last week: Vice President Dick Cheney several weeks ago proposed launching airstrikes at suspected training camps in Iran run by the Quds force, a special unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[25,3,23],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/326"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=326"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/326\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=326"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=326"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=326"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}