{"id":327,"date":"2007-08-15T07:11:06","date_gmt":"2007-08-15T11:11:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=327"},"modified":"2007-08-15T11:45:08","modified_gmt":"2007-08-15T15:45:08","slug":"iran-and-great-power-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=327","title":{"rendered":"Iran and Great Power Politics"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><meta http-equiv=\"Content-Language\" content=\"en-us\" \/> <meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=windows-1252\" \/><title>Iran is<\/title>Iran is, by most accounts, riding high these days, with unprecedented  influence within Afghanistan and Iraq and powerful Mediterranean proxy forces  like Hezbollah and Hamas.<\/p>\n<p>Who am I to disagree?<\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, a few small news stories shed a slightly different light on the  Iranian strategic position.<\/p>\n<p>For example, an August 11, 2007 report from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.industrywatch.com\/pages\/iw2\/Story.nsp?story_id=109311281&#038;ID=iw&#038;scategory=Energy:Regulations&#038;P=&#038;F=&#038;R=&#038;VNC=hnall\"> BBC Monitoring of Al-Sharqiyah Television<\/a> suggests the limits of Iranian  influence in Iraq, if not also Russia:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Diplomatic sources in Moscow said that the Iranian Government played a  \tmediatory role in the visit of Iraqi Oil Minister Husayn al- Shahrastani to  \tMoscow. Sources close to the Iranian Embassy in the Russian capital added  \tthat Iran asked Al-Shahrastani to agree on Russia&#8217;s demands to re-negotiate  \tthe investment of some southern oil wells based on a memorandum of  \tunderstanding signed by the former Iraqi regime with a number of big Russian  \toil firms in the early 1990s. The sources went to say the Iranian step seeks  \tto secure Moscow&#8217;s support for its nuclear programme.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>As I noted in <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=326\">a  previous post<\/a>, Shahrastani appears to have resisted Russian pressure for  re-negotiation on the West Qurna fields&#8211;Iranian &#8220;mediation&#8221; notwithstanding.<\/p>\n<p>What does it say about Iranian influence in Iraq if the Iranian regime cannot  &#8220;deliver&#8221; Iraq for Russia?<\/p>\n<p>And, can this outcome bode well for Iranian attempts to renew Moscow&#8217;s  support for its nuclear programme?<\/p>\n<p>Even as the US attempts to use financial pressure to isolate the Iranian  regime, there are signs that Iran may be having some difficulty lining up Great  Power allies.<\/p>\n<p>The <em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/article\/2007\/08\/14\/AR2007081401662_pf.html\"> Washington Post<\/a><\/em> reports:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The key obstacle to stronger international pressure against Tehran has  \tbeen China, Iran&#8217;s largest trading partner. After the Iranian government  \trefused to comply with two U.N. Security Council resolutions dealing with  \tits nuclear program, Beijing balked at a U.S. proposal for a resolution that  \twould have sanctioned the Revolutionary Guard, U.S. officials said.<\/p>\n<p>China&#8217;s actions reverse a cycle during which Russia was the most reluctant  \tamong the veto-wielding members of the Security Council. &#8220;<strong>China used to  \thide behind Russia, but Russia is now hiding behind China,<\/strong>&#8221; said a U.S.  \tofficial familiar with negotiations.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Be that as it may, there are also limits to China&#8217;s willingness to shelter  the Iranian regime.<\/p>\n<p>The <em>Financial Times<\/em> reports on China&#8217;s potential reluctance to back  Iranian efforts to get a seat at the Shanghai Co-operation Organization:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Russia that is pushing the latest efforts to give the [Shanghai  \tCo-operation Organisation] more muscle. Moscow is expected to lobby this  \tweek for Iran&#8217;s inclusion, which would deepen the rift with the US over  \tWashington&#8217;s plan to site missile interceptors in central Europe.<\/p>\n<p>While Russia is at odds with the US, Nato and the European Union on a range  \tof issues, China regards the recently sealed US nuclear pact with India with  \tdeep suspicion and could see that as justification to allow Iran&#8217;s entry&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Some analysts, however, believe China would block any proposal to allow Iran  \tto join the SCO. &#8220;Admitting Iran would further strain already tense  \tChinese-US relations and would not advance China&#8217;s main priority in the SCO,  \twhich is to manage relations with its western neighbours,&#8221; says Martha Brill  \tOlcott, a central Asia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for Inter-national  \tPeace.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>It would be a mistake to underestimate Iranian strategic leverage in the  Middle East, the Gulf, and Central Asia.<\/p>\n<p>But there are limits.<\/p>\n<p>From Cheney&#8217;s perspective, it might even be argued (as he did during the  1990s), that <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=291\">Iran&#8211;as a  Caspian regional power<\/a>&#8211;would do well to align itself not with Russia <em>or<\/em>  China, but with the United States.<\/p>\n<p>That seems difficult to imagine, given all the tough talk between the US and  Iran.\u00c2\u00a0 But stranger things have happened.<\/p>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Iran isIran is, by most accounts, riding high these days, with unprecedented influence within Afghanistan and Iraq and powerful Mediterranean proxy forces like Hezbollah and Hamas. Who am I to disagree? Nevertheless, a few small news stories shed a slightly different light on the Iranian strategic position. For example, an August 11, 2007 report from [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[19,25,6,3,23],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/327"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=327"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/327\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=327"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=327"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=327"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}