{"id":339,"date":"2007-10-07T23:59:33","date_gmt":"2007-10-08T03:59:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=339"},"modified":"2007-10-07T23:59:33","modified_gmt":"2007-10-08T03:59:33","slug":"us-and-iran-the-worst-of-friends","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=339","title":{"rendered":"US and Iran: The Worst of Friends"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><meta http-equiv=\"Content-Language\" content=\"en-us\" \/> <meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=windows-1252\" \/><title>The winds of war are blowing tow<\/title>The winds of war are blowing toward Iran.<\/p>\n<p>General Petraeus is reportedly <a href=\"http:\/\/uk.reuters.com\/articlePrint?articleId=UKYAT72176520071007\"> stepping up accusations against Iran<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>And there is plenty of speculation that the Israeli raid on Syria was <a href=\"http:\/\/observer.guardian.co.uk\/world\/story\/0,,2170188,00.html\">a dress  rehearsal for a military assault on Iran<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad certainly seems like a man  frantic to reduce Iranian isolation on the Arab street in an effort to undermine  Arab support for anti-Iranian initiatives.\u00c2\u00a0 Most recently, Ahmadinejad  reportedly accused Israel on Friday of using the Holocaust as a pretext for <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/newsOne\/idUSL0559724520071005?sp=true\"> &#8220;genocide&#8221; against Palestinians<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>And yet&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Hugh Naylor of the <em>New York Times<\/em> has filed a story under the headline  &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2007\/10\/07\/world\/middleeast\/07syria.html?ref=middleeast&#038;pagewanted=all\">Syria  Is Said to Be Strengthening Ties to Opponents of Iraq\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Government<\/a>.&#8221;\u00c2\u00a0  It sounds simple enough: more US griping about Syria&#8217;s role as a &#8220;rogue&#8221; regime  playing an &#8220;unhelpful&#8221; role in Iraq.<\/p>\n<p>Buried within the article, however, Naylor delivers up his real news flash:  Iran and the US appear to be allies in an uncoordinated effort to <em>halt<\/em>  Syrian outreach to opponents of Iraq&#8217;s government.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>In July, former Baathists opposed to the Iraqi government of Prime  \tMinister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki scheduled a conference<\/strong> for insurgent  \tgroups \u00e2\u20ac\u201d including two of the most prominent, the 1920s Revolution Brigades  \tand Ansar al Sunna \u00e2\u20ac\u201d at the Sahara Resort <strong>outside Damascus<\/strong>&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>The July conference was <strong>canceled at the last minute<\/strong>, however,  \tindicating the political perils of Syria\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s developing strategy. It was  \tcalled off by the government of President Bashar al-Assad, participants,  \tdiplomats and analysts said, <strong>primarily because of pressure from Iran<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Iran is Syria\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s chief ally and a staunch supporter of Iraq\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s  \tShiite-dominated government. The Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,  \tvisited Damascus just days before the conference was to have taken place&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>Syria is walking a fine line, forging an \u00e2\u20ac\u0153enemy of my enemy\u00e2\u20ac\u009d relationship  \twith the Iraqi Baathists and insurgents while still maintaining an alliance  \twith Tehran&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>In an interview, <strong>a senior Defense Department official praised Damascus  \tfor canceling the opposition conference<\/strong>&#8230;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I know <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=296\">Iran and the US  want to want to hate each other<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 But <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=330\">geopolitical strategy  seems to be getting in the way<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 The US and Iran are, to the apparent  chagrin of all concerned, becoming <a href=\"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/?p=295\">the <em>worst of friends<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Were it not for Naylor&#8217;s mention of the senior Defense Department official  who praised the Syrian decision to cancel the conference, I could almost have  imagined a way of explaining Iranian efforts as <em>anti-American<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Consider, for example, Naylor&#8217;s account of the relation between Baathist  factionalism and Syrian political intervention:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Thabet Salem, a Syrian political commentator, said Syria was also  \texploiting a rift between two former Iraqi Baath Party leaders, Izzat  \tIbrahim al-Douri, a former vice president under Mr. Hussein, and Muhammad  \tYounis al-Ahmed, who is believed to be living in Syria&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>\u00e2\u20ac\u0153<strong>Younis al-Ahmed<\/strong> is trying to go under the umbrella of the Syrians as  \ta way to unite the Baathists,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d Mr. Salem said. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153And the Syrians quietly  \tsupport him&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Some Syrians speculated that he <strong>wanted to take a more conciliatory stance  \twith the Iraqi government and the United States<\/strong>. His rival, Mr. <strong>Douri,  \twho is suspected of having stronger ties with insurgent groups, rejected the  \tconference<\/strong>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>According to that scenario, Syria could be accused of trying to placate the  US by sponsoring &#8220;conciliatory&#8221; Baathists factions while Iran&#8217;s attack on the  Syrian initiative could be viewed as a gesture of solidarity in support of  &#8220;irreconcilable&#8221; Iraqi insurgents linked to Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri.<\/p>\n<p>This would presumably be the interpretation championed by figures like  Michael Ledeen who insist that the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/ledeen\/ledeen200601110825.asp\">Iranian  regime has allied itself with (and provided arms to) radical Sunni Arab  insurgents<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>What, then, to make of the alleged Defense Department praise for the  cancelation of the conference?\u00c2\u00a0 Wouldn&#8217;t that tend to undermine the Ledeen  scenario?<\/p>\n<p>And there is one other element of Naylor&#8217;s report that might give one pause:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Douri deeply distrusts working with the Syrians because he distrusts the  \tIranians, who are strong allies with Syria,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d Mr. Salem said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>If Naylor&#8217;s source, Thabet Salem, has his story right, then there are  considerable tensions between the Iranian regime and Iraqi Baathist insurgents  like Douri.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps Iran supports the Sunni Arab Baathists as an insurgency in Iraq  insofar as such support prevents the US from establishing control over Iraq.<\/p>\n<p>If so, that support may only go so far.<\/p>\n<p>Will Iran favor the restoration of Sunni Arab political control over Iraq?<\/p>\n<p>Will Iran support (reportedly) anti-Iranian Baathists like Douri?<\/p>\n<p>If Naylor has his story right, the answer is: No.<\/p>\n<p>Iran and the US are both backing the Maliki government in Iraq.\u00c2\u00a0 Neither  appear willing to dump Maliki in exchange for a Sunni Arab Baathist coup.<\/p>\n<p>In this regard, Peter Galbraith may not be wholly incorrect in his <a href=\"http:\/\/www.timesonline.co.uk\/tol\/news\/world\/middle_east\/article2602615.ece\"> recent assertion about US-Iranian relations<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>[I]importantly, the most pro-Iranian Shi\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ite political party is the one  \tleast hostile to the United States.<\/p>\n<p>In the battle now under way&#8230; the United States and Iran are on the same  \tside&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>Iran does not oppose Iraq\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s new political order. In fact, it is the chief  \tbeneficiary of the US-induced changes in Iraq since 2003.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The winds of war are blowing towThe winds of war are blowing toward Iran. General Petraeus is reportedly stepping up accusations against Iran. And there is plenty of speculation that the Israeli raid on Syria was a dress rehearsal for a military assault on Iran. Meanwhile, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad certainly seems like a man [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6,3,14],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/339"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=339"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/339\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=339"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=339"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/profcutler.com\/wordpress_blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=339"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}